Gabe Killian’s Last Minute Props and Parlays for UFC 169

UFC-LondonUFC 169 is live today from The Prudential Center in Newark, NJ, with a sure to be exciting 12-fight card. From a betting perspective, there are several props I like for this fight. If interested in betting these, or any other props, you may do so at 5Dimes Sportsbooks. These are my props and parlays for UFC 169: Renan Barao (-290) vs Urijah Faber (+260) Fight Goes the Distance (-145) 2.9u to win 2u Barao by Split/Majority Decision (+481) .25u to win 1.2u Barao (-290) parlayed with Overeem -3.5 (-280) for -122 2u to win 1.65u I think this rematch is going to be more exciting than the first, and should be closer, too. Faber was able to take one round on the judges’ scorecards in their first meeting, and I think this time he may be able to take two, and one judge may even see him taking three. That said, I will not be surprised if it is 50-45 Barao, since, after all, RENAN BARAO IS A MONSTER!! I think he wins a unanimous nod, but I see enough value in the split/majority decision prop to recommend a bet. Alistair Overeem (-350) vs Frank Mir (+318) Overeem (-350) parlayed with Catone/Watson over 1.5 rounds (-240) for -122 3.9u to win 3.2u Overeem -3.5 (-280) parlayed with Barao (-290) for -122 2u to win 1.65u I made a play on Overeem by Decision at +765, then later again when it went up to +1276, and again when it reached +1419.The line began to drop back down, and I hit it again at +940, and then again at +754. It has now dropped all the way down to +560, so I no longer see enough value to recommend a bet. I think there is a decent chance Overeem wins a decision, but I think more often than not, this fight ends with Overeem earning a T/KO in under 1.5 rounds. Nick Catone (+140) vs Tom Watson (-150) Catone by Decision (+255) 2u to win 5.1u Catone/Watson over 1.5 rounds (-240) parlayed with Overeem (-350) for -122 3.9u to win 3.2u I think Catone is going to use his superior wrestling to dominate this fight on the mat for the majority of 15 minutes en route to a unanimous judges’ decision. Andy Enz (+160) vs Clint Hester (-170) Andy Enz +3.5 (-135) 1.35u to win 1u I think Enz could earn a submission, if the fight hits the mat, and if it stays on the feet, I could see him winning at least one round on the judges’ scorecards. Gasan Umalatov (-145) vs Neil Magny (+135) Neil Magny +3.5 (-170) 1.7u to win 1u I expect Magny to be the fresher fighter in the third round, as he has the superior cardio going into this bout. So even if he loses the first two rounds, I think he could win the third. Only concern is his not-so-great chin. I could see Umalatov catching him, which is the only reason I’m keeping this play small. That said, I think Magny has a shot at taking a decision in this spot. Here are a couple of more risky parlays I am on that I think have a decent chance of cashing: 7 teamer: Faber/Barao Goes the Distance (-145), Overeem -3.5 (-290), Trujillo +3.5 (-215), Not Makdessi by Three Round Decision (-230), Watson does NOT win by T/KO (-215), Not Iaquinta Inside Distance (-347), and Not Hester Inside Distance (-198) for +801 + 4 teamer: Overeem -3.5 (-290), Trujillo +3.5 (-215), Catone/Watson Starts Round Three (-164), and Not Hester Inside Distance (-198) for +377 Note: Some lines have changed since I made these wagers. For example, Overeem -3.5 went from -290 to -280, and Catone/Watson Starts Round Three went from -164 to -150.

Written by Gabe Killian

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