While it is hard to disagree with anyone predicting a successful Ilia Topuria title defense on the White House card, it is a bit outrageous to just take his money line. Shop around and you can find good prices on props centered around Topuria winning, but with much cheaper odds and the more likely outcome of how he wins.
I could see this being a closer fight if Gaethje were younger, but throughout his career, he has been hurt and finished. It has not become easier for him to take shots and withstand punishment as his career and age have progressed. He has an elite resume of wins and losses against the best the world has to offer in the lightweight division. Topuria presents real problems for him—speed, technique, and power. I could see a round one or round two TKO finish for Topuria.
I find it hard to see Gaethje surviving very long if he gets clipped by a hook. Gaethje used to rely heavily on kicking his opponents’ legs, but has moved away from that strategy more and more—for reasons I do not know, even though it was very effective. I think Gaethje would really need to lean on attacking Topuria’s legs early on and avoid getting drawn into wild exchanges. He needs a smart, calculated approach focusing on short shots, leg kicks, and protecting his chin. I do not know how long that game plan will last, though, as Topuria is truly better everywhere—in speed, technique, wrestling, and chin. I cannot play Topuria straight up, but I think the TKO price is fine. He should be able to dispose of Gaethje within the first two rounds relatively easily.
Thanks for reading, and best of luck!
Prop: Topuria Wins By TKO (-200)
