If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
|Significant Strikes||+0.2 Pts|
|Control Time||+0.03 Pts/Second|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
|Quick Win Bonus||+25 Pts|
This weekend, we have an 11-fight card in Vegas back at the Apex. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $500,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Kyler Phillips – $9,200
Phillips is my preferred play here, but I don’t love his $9.2k price tag. He has scored 73, 98, and 91 in his 3 UFC wins so far and I don’t see this fight being much better. I can’t fade him because I think he is better everywhere and this could be a high paced fight, but I probably do go underweight in GPPs. I think he is a fine cash game play though because I feel pretty good about him winning, and Paiva will mostly be a fade for me for that reason. I think the “safe” cash game pay up is either Phillips or Eubanks on this slate and for me, Eubanks is just harder to trust in general and the weight cut worries me with her. Kyler should be the better fighter anywhere this fight goes, and I don’t see this being a boring at all.
GPP play of the week – Puna Soriano – $8,200
I like both sides of this fight. Puna has the KO upside and Allen has the grappling and submission upside. This will be the fight I hedge with the most and try to be overweight to both sides. Puna is my preferred play though because he does have a wrestling background and if Allen is stuck standing, I don’t think that will be good for him. Puna has serious power, and that round 1 KO will break the slate at $8.2k if it happens. I think the winner of this fight will score more than 10x their salary and I think they have a good chance at being on the optimal lineup.
Underdog play of the week – Randy Costa – $7,200
This seems like a 1st round KO or bust fight for Costa. I think Yanez is the better fighter everywhere and I am picking Yanez to win this fight. However, if Costa does get the win, then he is going to score 100+ and he will be on the $100k lineup. He is a boom/bust play but that is what we want in tournaments. He scored 119 and 127 in his 2 UFC wins and if he beats Yanez, it is probably going to be similar because it will have to be a knockout. This is not a cash game underdog at all though, so GPP only for this play.
Fade of the week – Julio Arce – $9,100
Arce is going to be a full fade for me at this price tag. I don’t see him landing many takedowns and we have a +250 ITD line. I just don’t see how he pays off this salary in a decision win and I would rather target every other favorite over him this week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 171-158 for +224.27u (+$22,427) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)