Big Marley’s UFC Orlando Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:


Strikes +0.2 Pts
Significant Strikes +0.2 Pts
Control Time +0.03 Pts/Second
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
Quick Win Bonus +25 Pts

This weekend, we have a 15-fight card in Orlando, and we are in the big cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $350,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game. There is Late Swap in MMA now though so you have to be ready to swap off any late scratch and it will help to swap off chalk in dead lineups as well.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Jonathan Pearce $9,500

Pearce is a great GPP target every time he fights, and he is my preferred play here. He has scored 134, 123, 96, and 145 in his four UFC wins. He has that same ceiling here if he looks to land 4-6 takedowns like he did in those fights. Pearce is one of my favorite plays on the slate this week and he is my cash game play of the week as the 2nd highest priced fighter.

GPP fight of the week – Sergei Pavlovich $9,000 vs Tai Tuivasa $7,200

This is a fight we need to load up on in GPPs with a -1100 FDNGTD line and -150 that the fight ends in round 1. I want this fight in almost every GPP lineup I create and if I was making just 1 lineup then I’d prefer Pavlovich with his -110 wins in round 1 line. Tuivasa has one of the highest ceilings as an underdog though, so I am fine with him if I need the salary. If this fight somehow goes the distance, then neither guy will score well so if you want to be contrarian and fade it, that is what you are hoping for. GPP either way but load up on this fight.

Underdog play of the week – Genaro Valdez $7,300

Valdez is a wild man, and he is always trying to finish the fight. If he isn’t trying to knock his opponent’s head off, then he is looking for takedowns and trying to get a RNC. If he wins here, then it is probably a finish early in the fight. Valdez fights look like they will always be great GPP fights to target. If he wins then he is almost always going to score well, and all his wins are ITD. I don’t feel good about him getting the win, but I feel confident that he would score well if he does.

Fade of the week – Yazmin Jauregui $9,300 vs Istela Nunes $6,900

This is a curtain jerker I will look to avoid with its -200 FGTD line. There are 15 fights on this card, and this is one of my least favorite because I expect a 15-minute striking match. Jauregui is coming off a very fun striking match and she only scored 65 DK points. She is going to be priced out of my player pool at $9.3k and she will need a finish or some wrestling/grappling to pay off that price tag. She is only in play as a low owned GPP shot. Nunes doesn’t have any real ceiling either unless she gets a TKO, and that isn’t something I want to invest in. I would say she would be best used as a cheap cash punt who should get 3-rounds of striking points and a 30-point loss from her in cash would be fine. I might X both sides out in GPPs and this fight as a whole is my fade of the week.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that at the link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 231-219 for +242.10u (+$24,210) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)


Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.


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