Big Marley’s UFC 281 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:


Strikes +0.2 Pts
Significant Strikes +0.2 Pts
Control Time +0.03 Pts/Second
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
Quick Win Bonus +25 Pts

This weekend, we have a 14-fight card at MSG in New York City, and we are in the big cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $350,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Erin Blanchfield $9,500

Blanchfield is my preferred play in all formats, and I would try to lock her into cash games with her -400 betting line. Her big edge in this fight is on the mat and that is what scores well on DraftKings. She has scored 126, 115, and 95 in her 3 UFC fights and she is going to have to get this fight to the mat to have any chance of dominating. I will get as much exposure to her as I can afford in GPPs, but she isn’t a must have play because there are a lot of good plays on this card, and she is the most expensive.

GPP fight of the week – Dustin Poirier $8,900 vs Michael Chandler $7,300

This is my pick for Fight of the Night, and it should be a war. Both guys are well-rounded and seem allergic to boring fights and I will be close to all-in on this fight. I expect this to be a banger and the winner likely scores over 100 DK points. Chandler scored 103 and 107 in his 2 UFC wins and if he wins here, it should be a KO or him using his wrestling in a decision. I would be shocked if he didn’t score over 10x in a win, but he should compete for the optimal if he gets it. Poirier has never scored less than 86 DK points and he scored over 99 eighteen times on his fight log. Poirier is my preferred play since I am picking him to get the KO, but I want to be overweight to both sides if possible and I expect this fight to be in 85% or more of my total GPP lineups.

Underdog play of the week – Frankie Edgar $7,100

This fight is Edgar or pass for me. He is 41 now and the chin could be gone. Gutierrez is live for the KO but that is the only way he has a shot at the optimal lineup, and it would have to come in round 1 most likely. I will take my chances and fade that and get more exposure to the heavy favorites that I like. Edgar is in play for his wrestling and if he wins this fight, I expect him to score over 10x. He even has 100+ upside as he showed in his last fight where he scored 69 in a 3rd round loss against Marlon Vera, and his best PTV is the same here with a wrestling-heavy game plan. I will get leverage to Edgar, and I like him in all formats hoping his chin holds up and he goes out with a win.

Fade of the week – Seung Woo Choi $8,800 vs Mike Trizano $7,400

Trizano is my preferred play in all formats because he is cheaper in a fight that I think should be close to a PK. Choi is going to be priced out of my pool at $8.8k because I don’t see him scoring 10x even if he does win. I like all the fighters priced around him more, so I will just X him out of my player pool and hope he doesn’t get an early KO. Trizano doesn’t have any real ceiling either though, so I don’t mind fading him either and just hoping this fight goes the distance. It has a -186 FGTD line and if that happens, I don’t know that either guy even scores 70 DK points. This is my least favorite DFS fight on the card, and I am not against X’ing out both sides.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that at the link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 229-217 for +242.40u (+$24,240) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)


Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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