Big Marley’s UFC Orlando Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:


Strikes +0.2 Pts
Significant Strikes +0.2 Pts
Control Time +0.03 Pts/Second
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
Quick Win Bonus +25 Pts

This weekend, we have a 13-fight PPV card in Vegas, and we are in the big cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $25 buy-in & $150k goes to 1st place with $700,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game. There is Late Swap in MMA now though so you have to be ready to swap off any late scratch and it will help to swap off chalk in dead lineups as well.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Magomed Ankalaev $9,200

I don’t love Ankalaev for tournaments this week, but I do think he is fine for cash games. He is lined at -340 on FanDuel and he does get 5 rounds to work with. He could get a KO or decide to wrestle heavily and score well if he does either of those in a win. My worry for tournaments would be that this fight is a 5-round striking match and they just don’t throw enough volume to win a tournament if that is the case. I do like him to get the win though and if he scores 75 in cash games, that won’t kill us. These other favorites are more risky and unproven plays IMO so Ankalaev would be my cash game play of the week.

GPP fight of the week – Vinicius Salvador $8,900 vs Daniel Da Silva $7,300

I’m hoping the casuals overlook this fight because it is pretty much an all in fight for me. FDNGTD is lined at -1000 on FD and either guy could finish this fight in round 1. Salvador is live for the early KO, and he could get a couple knockdowns in the process. Da Silva should be lower owned and his PTV is a high DK score from a KO or submission. I wouldn’t touch either side in cash games, but my plan is to be overweight on both sides and hit the right combination with the winner. Salvador is my preferred play, but I am fine with Da Silva in SE if I need him to be my cheap punt.

Underdog play of the week – Bryce Mitchell $7,800

I am actually picking Ilia Topuria to win this fight, but I do like Mitchell a lot on DraftKings as an underdog. If he does win this fight, it is going to be very grappling-heavy, and he will most likely score well. He only needs 78 DK points to 10x this salary, but he has 100+ upside. He has the ability to land multiple takedowns in each round and he could rack up 10+ minutes of control time. Topuria slows down in fights as well and Mitchell can really put it on him late in the fight if that is the case. I don’t feel good about Mitchell winning, but I feel good about him scoring well if he does win.

Fade of the week – Santiago Ponzinibbio $8,700 vs Alex Morono $7,500

This fight is my fade of the week because it is expected to go the distance at -135 and neither guy is going to have a grappling-heavy style. This should be a 15-minute striking matchup and if that’s the case then the winner probably won’t score enough for the optimal lineup. If you are high on either side then you can use them, I will just X these two out and I prefer the other fight with the same salaries on each side.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that at the link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 233-220 for +243.97u (+$24,397) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)


Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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