Three Not For Me: The Fights To Pass On for UFC Vegas 10

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We’re on the heels of UFC Vegas 9 where we saw Alistair Overeem put the vet lesson on Augusto Sakai. This week at UFC Vegas 10, we’ve got a headliner between two, longstanding UFC Strawweight’s in Michelle Waterson and Angela Hill.

First time reading this piece? I go through 3 fights on the upcoming UFC card that you should avoid from a betting perspective and the reasoning why. As bettors, we’re constantly looking to find our betting opportunities but identifying those spots to stay away are just as important.

**NOTE: The perspective being given in this article is from where current odds sit at the time writing. Also, my analysis in regards to passing on these fights is from a STRAIGHT betting perspective.

Let’s jump into it!


Mike Rodriguez (-245) vs Ed Herman (+205)

Ed Herman has had a tough time getting back in the cage with all of his last 5 fight booking being cancelled and Mike Rodriguez is getting a quick-turnaround after scoring an impressive KO just 3 weeks ago.

This matchup pits the younger, fresher fighter versus the “grizzled vet”. In theory, the explosive nature of Rodriguez should get the job done for him but he’s a guy I still have a lot of question marks around. For a guy who’s as big as he is, he doesn’t use his length all that well which could leave openings for Herman in this spot. Herman’s more of a “plodding” guy whose core-competency is definitely his toughness. The question is whether he can get inside to land strikes and/or work his grappling, without getting sparked. Ultimately, despite me being relatively low of Rodriguez, it’s a tough fight for Herman.

I feel the line on Rodriguez is a bit too high but given the stylistics of the fight, there isn’t enough value to take the shot on Herman. If you’re backing Rodriguez, you’re hoping that explosive nature comes through and he’ll be able to put out a very durable guy in Herman. If you’re back Herman, you’re assuming he’ll be able to get on the inside with consistency on a much larger opponent who possesses power and a diversity of strikes.

Overall, too many questions for me – I’d suggest staying away.


Roosevelt Roberts (-115) vs Matt Frevola (-105)

Roosevelt Roberts is looking to get back in the win column after showing some poor fight IQ in his last outing against Jim Miller. His counterpart, Matt Frevola, is looking to extend his winning streak to 3.

This is one of the trickier fights on the card to call for me. Conventional wisdom says that if this fight is upright for extended periods of time, it’s Roberts all day. If Frevola is able to work his grinding, wrestling-based style, it’s Frevola all day. I largely agree with those sentiments, it’s about determining which one is going to happen. I tend to side with the latter as that grinding-type of style that Frevola brings to the table, has historically given Roberts troubles. However, Roberts isn’t incompetent on his back but if he can’t keep space here, it’s probably a tough night for him. But if he is able to keep space, Frevola is very defensively liable on the feet.

I feel the pick em price is justified here. There’s a valid argument for whatever side you fall on but at the end of the day, you’re not getting an edge backing either side. At this point, I don’t know how you can trust Roberts with your money and based on Frevola’s style, he’s found himself in a lot of close fights. It’s one of those fights where if you bet it, you’re throwing your money up and hoping it falls on the right side.

This fight’s a pass for me.


Khama Worthy (-135) vs Ottman Azaitar (+115)

Khama Worthy is looking to extend his winning streak to 8 and Ottman Azaitar is looking to move to 13-0.

This fight is definitely a front-runner for “Fight of the Night” depending on how long it lasts. Both guys have shown strong finishing components but I would still give the edge there to Ottman. Worthy has been on the end of some brutal KO’s over the course of his career and the one thing I’m pretty confident in is that Ottman will be going forward and seeking the KO. Ottman isn’t the most technical striker in the world but has found the KO with consistency. Worthy has shown more composure in recent years but not against aggressive guys. He’s also shown some poor tendencies while moving backwards. I think Ottman finds his chin at some point but Ottman’s been hurt bad before too so I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes his first L here either. If the fight is extended, I favor Worthy because of the better technical skills (also meaning that Ottman hasn’t found his chin through the first 5 minutes).

Worthy opened around 40% indication so if you we’re able to jump on that early line, that was probably the play here. He sits as a slight favorite now so the value has shifted to Ottman. But in a matchup that seems to be pretty volatile, I would need a much bigger plus number attached to either fighter for straight bet consideration.

Save your money here guys!


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Written by Luke Lampe - Sparring with Reality Betting

Writer/Fight Connoisseur
Contributor @mmaoddsbreaker
UFC Betting Advice

Follow on Twitter: @SWR_Betting

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