Gabe Killian’s Main Card Parlay for UFC on FOX 14

Phil DavisUFC on FOX 14 Date: January 24, 2015 Arena: Tele2 Arena City: Stockholm, Sweden The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Sweden this Saturday night (Jan. 24, 2015) with UFC on FOX 14: Gustafsson vs Johnson. The event will feature an entirety of 12 fights, including a four-fight main card that will be live on FOX at 8pm ET. Preliminary action precedes it at 5pm on FOX Sports 1, with a pair of bouts coming before that on UFC Fight Pass at 4pm ET. If interested in making this parlay, or any other wagers for this UFC fight card, you will be able to do so at 5Dimes Sportsbooks. Here’s my main card parlay for UFC on FOX 14 in Sweden: Light Heavyweight bout: Alexander Gustafsson (-280) vs Anthony Johnson (+240) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think the Swede’s height and reach advantage are going to play a real difference in this match-up. Many expect Gustafsson’s superior cardio to be the difference maker, but Johnson has really made improvements in that department, so I would not be surprised to see him go all 25 minutes without fatigue setting in. However, over the course of said 25 minutes, I do expect him to get technically outstruck on the feet by the superior boxer in Gustafsson. I see “The Mauler” keeping this one very technical and outpointing “Rumble” over the course of five rounds en route to picking up a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. I could see Johnson starting off strong, and may even win the first round or two, but in such a scenario, I think Gustafsson would come back strong to win the final three frames. Not because Johnson begins to gas, but because Gustafsson starts to find his groove. That said, he should find his groove in the first round, and while this is no easy fight for him, I see him using his high fight-IQ to lead him towards victory on Saturday night. With the hometown advantage, I think Gustafsson should be a -350 favorite, because if it turns out to be a really close fight when it goes the distance, it is very likely he’ll get the nod. At his current betting price of -280, I think he is worth including in this three teamer. Gabe’s Call: Gustafsson by Unanimous Decision (49-46, 48-47, 49-46) Middleweight bout: Dan Henderson (+385) vs Gegard Mousasi (-485) Gabe’s Thoughts: Mousasi is without a doubt the superior mixed martial artist heading into this match-up at this point in their careers and I see him completely having his way with Henderson. I’m not certain he will get the finish, but I feel confident this fight will be 100% Gegard Mousasi. It’s a great spot for him to bounce back into the win column and I expect this to be a walk in the park for the Armenian, much like his bout with Munoz was. Even at his current price of -485, I see a world of value in Mousasi, as I think he should be -2000. I don’t see any way he loses this fight. If he gets caught with an H-Bomb…dare I say, I think he can take it and keep going. Gabe’s Call: Mousasi by Submission (rear naked choke, 3:23 round 3) Light Heavyweight bout: Phil Davis (-255) vs Ryan Bader (+215) Gabe’s Thoughts: There is a chance this fight could turn very competitive, leaving bettors sweating when it hits the judges’ scorecards for a decision. However, more often than not, I think Davis will have done enough to take the nod. I do believe this is a close fight, and the reason I include it in this parlay is because not only do I favor Davis’ chances of picking up the decision if it goes the distance, but I also think there is a good chance that he finishes Bader, while I do not see any way Bader wins outside of a close decision. I think Davis should be -300 here, so there’s just enough value to include him in this three-way parlay for UFC on FOX 14. Gabe’s Call: Davis by Submission (D’Arce choke, 2:13 round 2) Gabe’s Recommended Parlay: Gustafsson (-280) parlayed with Mousasi (-485) and Davis (-255) for +127 4.85u to win 6.2u

Written by Gabe Killian

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