UFC Fight Night 54 in Nova Scotia: Fights to Avoid Betting

Jason-SaggoUFC Fight Night 54 Date: October 4, 2014 Arena: Scotiabank Centre City: Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns with another doubleheader on Saturday with UFC Fight Night 53 in Sweden and UFC Fight Night 54 in Nova Scotia. UFC Fight Night 54 will be live from Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada with a 12-fight card, including a main card that will be live on FOX Sports 1 at 10pm ET. Preliminary action will be getting going on UFC Fight Pass at 7pm ET, then following on FOX Sports 2 at 8pm ET. If interested in making this parlay, or any other wagers for this UFC fight card, you will be able to do so at Several Bookmakerss. My bets to AVOID for UFC Fight Night 54 in Nova Scotia are: Middleweight bout: Jingliang Li (+325) vs Nordine Taleb (-400) Gabe’s Thoughts: I agree that Taleb should be the betting favorite heading into this 185 pound contest, but I do not agree that he should be a 4-to-1 favorite, especially against a tough fighter like Li. While Taleb is a solid mixed martial artist, I think he is one of those fighters that perform better inside the gym than they do inside the cage when the spotlight is on them. I don’t believe we have ever seen him perform at his full potential, and I am not convinced we ever will, despite the fact that he continues to improve his all-around game as an MMA fighter. I think Li is being undervalued in this match-up, however, I don’t see him as a live dog because I don’t believe there is enough value on him to warrant a wager. This is especially true considering that the fight is in Taleb’s backyard of Canada. Taleb very well should pick up the victory in Canada, most likely via decision, but at the current heavy-juiced price of -400? I have to recommend we stay away. As opposed to his fellow TUF: Nations teammates who are also on the card, I don’t believe such a heavy-juiced line is justified, as I don’t think this fight is a complete mismatch, while I believe Theodoreu vs Santos and Aubin-Mercier vs Lindsey are. Gabe’s Call: Taleb by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Lightweight bout: Jason Saggo (-175) vs Paul Felder (+155) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Saggo is the superior mixed martial artist heading into this 155 pound scrap and agree with him being a -175 favorite. That means I don’t see any value there to warrant a wager, so I think we should just sit back and enjoy this one, as I think it will be a very fun fight. Felder is making his promotional debut here, and while I think he is a solid lightweight, I feel he is going to come up short against Saggo in this contest. I see this fight playing out for all three rounds, as I think both men will be tough to put away. Another thing to keep in mind is that Felder is an undefeated fighter, and a talented one at that, which is something that could always be dangerous to bet against. I think that is the case in this fight, and while I think Saggo will be able to do enough to edge every round to pick up a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards, I think it could be close enough where bad judges could screw it up and award a split decision to Felder. That said, should judging be accurate and the fight play out as I expect it, Saggo will edge Felder for a unanimous nod, giving the Irishman the first taste of defeat in his professional mixed martial arts career. Though, like I said, at the current price of -175, there isn’t enough value for me to justify a bet. I would also have to skip on playing Saggo by Decision, as well, as I would not be surprised to see him score a late finish, especially considering the fact that Felder has never gone the distance in his eight pro fight career. Gabe’s Call: Saggo by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID

Written by Gabe Killian

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