MMA Odds and Ends for Tuesday: A Sneak Peek At The Latest UFC Fight Night 43/44 Odds

Kelvin-Gastelum MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened a number of new betting lines for the upcoming UFC Fight Night 43 and UFC Fight Night 44 double-header, and for today’s MMA Odds and Ends I’ll give my quick thoughts on all of them. UFC Fight Night 43 The main event of UFC Fight Night New Zealand is a five-round middleweight bout between James Te Huna and Nate Marquardt. Te Huna opened at -190 and Marquardt at +150. Now, the public has taken Te Huna to -220 and Marquardt is a +180 dog. This is a really weird fight to pick because both fighters are switching weight classes, but at this point there could be some value on the dog Marquardt. But I really couldn’t trust either of these guys at this point and don’t see it as a good fight to bet on. The co-main event is a heavyweight bout between Jared Rosholt and Soa Palelei. Rosholt opened at -230 and Palelei at +170, and the public has bet Rosholt down to -150 and Palelei to +130. I definitely see value on Rosholt at this point and if the line holds steady I will be recommending a bet on him next week closer to the fight. A featherweight bout between Charles Oliveira and Hatsu Hioki is also super intriguing. Oliveira opened at -125 and Hioki at -115, and the public has been all over Oliveira so far as he’s not -190 while Hioki is +165. I believe this is closer to a Pick ’em type of fight and while I lean slightly towards Oliveira, the value seems to be on Hioki and if he breaks +200 he could be worth a play. And finally a welterweight bout between Robert Whittaker and Mike Rhodes opens up the card. Whittaker is -300 while Rhodes is +250, after Whittaker opened at -245 and Rhodes opened at +175. I think people are sleeping on Rhodes after his ugly UFC debut but I do favor Whittaker here like everyone else, although I’m not sure there’s any value in the current line. UFC Fight Night 44 The main event of UFC Fight Night San Antonio is a five-round featherweight firefight between gunslingers Cub Swanson and Jeremy Stephens. Swanson opened at -190 and Stephens at +150, but now Swanson is -245 with the comeback on Stephens at +205. I can’t blame people for taking Swanson as I do favor him, but at this point the line is getting too out of hand and if Stephens keeps climbing he could be worth a small stab as a dog. The co-main event is a welterweight bout between Kelvin Gastelum and Nico Musoke. Gastelum opened at -505 and Musoke at +335 and so far the public has ate up the dog as Gastelum has dropped to -370 and Musoke to +310. I really like Gastelum here and if he keeps dropping I’ll have to make a play on the TUF 17 winner. A middleweight bout between Cezar Mutante and Andrew Craig could result in a finish to either fighter. Mutante is -190 while Craig is +165 after Mutante opened at -150 and Craig opened at +150, meaning the public likes the TUF Brazil winner here. This is a competitive fight and both guys have questionable chins but I do lean slightly towards Mutante in this spot, although I wouldn’t bet him at the current number. A featherweight bout between Ricardo Lamas and Hacran Dias should be a grind. Lamas opened at -215 and Dias at +165, and so far the public has bet Lamas down to -190 and Dias down to +165. It’s an interesting fight for sure but I do favor Lamas here and if the line keeps dropping I’ll be playing him. A middleweight match between Antonio Braga Neto and Clint Hester is quite interesting. Braga Neto opened -160 with Hester at +120 and now the line is Braga Neto -150 and Hester +130, meaning the lines have tightened up as people are split on the matchup. This is a really tough one to call but I lean slightly towards Braga Neto due to his ground advantage and if he drops closer to a Pick ’em he could be worth a shot. And finally, a lightweight bout between Joe Ellenberger and Bryan Barberena opens up the main card. Ellenberger opened at -265 and Barberena at +225, and so far there has been modest action in Barberena’s favor as he’s now +215 while Ellenberger is -255. I lean towards Ellenberger here but he’s very unproven and I can’t blame people for taking a stab at the underdog Barberena.

Written by Adam Martin.

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