MMA Odds and Ends for Monday: Early Thoughts On New UFC Fight Night 39 Lines

ryan-laflare MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas released the betting odds for the four main card bouts at UFC Fight Night 39 over the weekend, and for today’s MMA Odds and Ends I’ll give my quick thoughts on all four fights. Also, be sure to keep an eye out for my full-length fight breakdowns for all four fights this week. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Roy Nelson In the main event of the evening, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira takes on Roy Nelson. This is a fun heavyweight fight between two aging veterans, but Nelson opened as the favorite and he deserves to be, as far as I’m concerned. However, that hasn’t stopped the betting public from taking the dog money on Nogueira in this spot, which somewhat surprises me given how inactive he’s been the last few years and how poor he has looked in certain fights. At -165, which is 25 cents lower than the opener of -190, it seems like there is some value on Nelson right now. Clay Guida vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri In the co-main event, Clay Guida takes on Tatsuya Kawajiri in a featherweight bout. Guida opened up as the underdog, but the public is all over him and he’s up to -140 now. I’m surprised the line flipped, but the public obviously doesn’t respect Kawajiri as much as I do, and I definitely see value on the dog at this point, as Kawajiri is available at +110 right now. The total of OVER 2.5 rounds at only -245 is also tempting for a bet. Ryan LaFlare vs. John Howard In a welterweight fight, Ryan LaFlare looks to put his undefeated record on the line against underrated veteran John Howard. I really do lean LaFlare in this matchup but right now the line is -290 (it opened at -230) and it could be too high of a line in a fight that likely goes the three-round distance given the state of MMA judging. Although LaFlare should take this, the OVER 2.5 rounds total at -230 might actually have more value. Tread cautiously when betting this fight, as LaFlare is not a lock by any means. Beneil Dariush vs. Ramsey Nijem And in the opening main card bout, a pair of lightweights do battle as Beneil Dairush takes on Ramsey Nijem. Dairush had a very impressive showing in his UFC debut, taking out veteran Charlie Brenneman via submission, but Nijem is a solid lightweight competitor and has way more experience against top-flight competition. The line opened with Dariush as a -210 favorite, but it’s down to -185 now, which is kind of surprising to me. I personally think Dariush wins, but it’s obvious the public believes the value is on the dog in this spot based on the way the line has moved.

Written by Adam Martin.

Leave a Reply

World Series of Fighting 9 Closing Odds & Results

Bellator 115’s Cheick Kongo: ‘I don’t want to be the next peg on Vitaly Minakov’s wall’