UFC Fight Night 33 Bet: Soa Palelei (+150) vs Pat Barry (-170)

TUF-16-FinaleUFC Fight Night 33 Date: December 6, 2013 Arena: Brisbane Entertainment Centre City: Brisbane, Queensland, Australia Heavyweight bout: Soa Palelei (+150) vs Pat Barry (-170) Fight Breakdown: The UFC Fight Night 33 main card on FOX Sports 1 will feature a heavyweight match-up between a couple of kickboxers, when Soa Palelei takes on Pat Barry. Palelei is the hometown favorite but the betting underdog in this scrap at +150 ($100 to win $150), while Barry is the favorite at -170 ($170 to win $100) at Several Bookmakerss. SOA PALELEI (19-3 MMA, 1-1 UFC) was successful in his UFC return, getting an undeserved TKO win against Nikita Krylov, in what was one of the worst fights of the year. Both men were couple gassed in round two, and Palelei did not want to get off the stool to start round three, but his corner made him. He did not need to do anything but just stand there, as Krylov practically knocked himself out by just dropping to the canvas, with nothing left to offer. Palelei is a decent striker with solid boxing skills who throws beautiful jumping jabs and hooks that stagger his opponents. He has average takedowns but his ground and pound is vicious and he can be a real threat from top position, because on top of his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt credentials, he really loves to rain heavy leather. Palelei is certainly a finisher who loves to knock his opponents out. All nine of the wins on his current eleven fight win streak have come by way of TKO/KO; seven of them in the first round. Training out of Australia and American Top Team in Coconut Creek, FL., Palelei is a former super heavyweight who cuts weight in order to make the 260 pound heavyweight limit. Going into this bout against Barry, he will be at a disadvantage in the cardio department. PAT BARRY (8-6 MMA, 5-6 UFC) is making his return to the Octagon following a knockout loss at the hands of Team Jackson/Winklejohn product Shawn Jordan. The finish came less than a minute into the very first round of action, and Barry went on to blame to poor performance on his head not being in the right place. It is a personal goal of Barry’s to have back-to-back wins inside the Octagon, as all of his wins have followed with a loss. Barry is a talented striker who works his kicks really well, especially his leg kicks. As Joe Rogan would say, “He’s got tree trunks for legs!” Throughout his career, Barry’s weakness has been the ground game. He likes to avoid wrestling at all costs, but after suffering three defeats by submission, he started working a lot more on his submission defense. The hard work paid off immediately after his last submission loss to Stefan Struve, where he defended submission attempts from Christian Morecraft in the first round, ultimately losing the round, and then came back to knock him out in the second. While 50 percent of his losses have been due to submissions, the other 50 percent have been knockouts. Barry’s chin seems to be getting worse, and against a heavy hitter like Palelei, he could be the one who goes down. Fight Prediction: I think Palelei is a step down in competition for Barry, considering the competition he has faced thus far in his UFC career. I can see Barry finishing the fight in the first round, and do favor him winning the round, if not getting a finish. The first round is also where Palelei has his only chance to finish Barry, as I think he will quickly fade as the fight goes on. Should this fight see to the second frame, I believe it will be all Pat Barry. Gabe’s Pick: Pat Barry by Submission (rear naked choke, 3:54, round 1), earning the first tapout victory of his career. It’s another one of his personal goals to win a fight by submission, and he will never get an easier opportunity than he has in Palelei. Gabe’s Recommended Play: Pat Barry (-170) 10.2u to win 6u as my second MONSTER PLAY on the card, Palelei/Barry Under 1.5 rounds (-180) 3.6u to win 2u, and Barry by Submission (+1310) 1u to win 13.1u

Written by Gabe Killian

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