ONE Championship 92: A New Era takes place Sunday, March 31 at the Ryōgoku Kokugikan in Tokyo, Japan. The offshore sportsbooks recently opened up the betting odds for the main card, and here they are.
ONE Championship 92 Opening Odds
Demetrious Johnson -1200
Yuya Wakamatsu +600
Eddie Alvarez -900
Timofey Nastyukhin +500
Bibiano Fernandes -120
Kevin Belingon -120
Angela Lee -390
Jing Nan Xiong +290
Eduard Folayang -195
Shinya Aoki +155
Aung La N Sang -160
Ken Hasegawa +120
And here are my initial thoughts on the Bellator 219 Opening Odds:
- It truly is a new era in ONE, and the promotion is having a huge event this weekend featuring the promotional debuts of both Johnson and Alvarez. Not surprisingly, both men have been given easy matchups for their ONE debuts. For Johnson, he’s fighting a guy with Wakamatsu who is just 1-2 in his last three fights and who has no notable career wins. He does have some knockout power, but the guys he’s beaten are bottom of the barrel. Johnson hasn’t fought since last August when he lost the UFC flyweight title to Henry Cejudo by split decision, but he remains one of the top pound-for-pound MMA fighters on the planet. He should dominate Wakamatsu and maybe even finish him. As for Alvarez, he hasn’t fought since a knockout loss to Dustin Poirier last July, but he would still be a top-five lightweight if he was still in the UFC. Nastyukhin is an action fighter and should bring the fight, but he’s just 2-2 in last last four bouts with two knockout losses, and Alvarez likely finishes him in brutal fashion here as well.
- Speaking of upsets, it was a big upset last November when Belingon beat Fernandez by split decision to win the ONE bantamweight title. Fernandes was on an eight-fight win streak and had finished Belington by submission the first time they fought, so losing a split nod to him in the rematch was very surprising, but perhaps it shows that he’s on a bit of a decline at this point of his career. Belingon, meanwhile, is on a seven-fight win streak and the king of the ONE bantamweight division. He’s also seven years younger than Fernandes. Honestly, I’m leaning towards a pass here. I think Fernandes will win the trilogy, but I don’t see much value in him here unless he hits plus money.
- Lee is ONE’s undefeated strawweight champion and at just 22 years old the sky is the limit for her. On paper she has several advantages over Xiong, including on the ground and in the age department as her opponent is 31. But Xiong has won nearly all of her pro bouts by knockout with her loss loss to Colleen Schneider. Lee should win, but the betting value is on Xiong.
- As far as the Aoki vs. Folayang fight goes, it looks like a similar situation as the last bout, where Folayang should win on paper but the value is on Aoki. It’s rare to see Aoki as an underdog, but these two have fought previously and Folayang won by knockout in 2016. Aoki has looked good since then, and we all know how dangerous he is on the mat, but Folayang is the younger fighter with more knockout power and it makes sense he’s favored. I just think Aoki is a live dog and the value is on him.
- And finally, Sang vs. Hasegawa is a rematch of the pair’s bout which Sang won by fifth-round knockout in an amazing fight. I think you have to lean towards Sang once again in the rematch, and there may be some value on him as just a small favorite, especially since Hasegawa hasn’t even fought since then.