Big Marley’s UFC on ESPN 2 DraftKings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %


Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts

This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Philly on big ESPN. DraftKings has some solid contests and I look forward to chasing the big GPPs. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $500k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I won my first seat into it a few weeks ago and I will try to get my 2nd seat this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at that $30 prize, and then I will probably take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Main Event Stack, Justin Gaethje AND Edson Barboza

When I stack a fight in cash games I want a minimum of 100 total points. Ideally more like 150 or more, but I’ll take 100-point floor with the guaranteed win. With Gaethje fights, we are pretty much locked into that 100+ and we have seen his fights even total over 200 DK points. He is the perfect style for accruing DraftKings points and if we use Edson as well, then we are guaranteed a win and probably 150+ points. Give me that all day. This is how I will be starting my cash lineup and then I will figure out the rest from there. I will take the loss because we don’t need 6 wins in cash games. 1st place and 5th place get paid the same in a 10-man double-up, so I am not shooting for first and I would rather play it safer with my cash lineups.

GPP play of the week – Enrique Barzola – $8,200

This isn’t a sneaky play at all but Barzola should be a great play if he shoots for takedowns. In his 5 UFC wins he has 36 takedowns. That is exactly what we want on DraftKings. Every takedown is 5-points and he is able to rack up enough to score 100+ points. If he can score over 100 DK points again here at $8.2k he is for sure going to win somebody $30k. I do expect him to be chalky this week, but he has too much scoring potential for me to fade the chalk. I will likely be in line with the field on ownership with my lineups, if not overweight.

Underdog play of the week – Michelle Waterson – $7,600

I like Waterson here because she is the fighter who will be looking for takedowns in this fight. I think she can get a few and she may be able to lock up a submission if that is the case. That is her ceiling in this fight, but I like her more for cash games because of her floor. I don’t see KK finishing Waterson, so I think we get three full rounds of scoring from her. Even in a loss she could put up 30-40 DK points and in cash games that is fine. I will be using her in GPPs as well, but I don’t think she submits KK. I would guess she puts up around ~80 DK points in a decision win if she is able to get the victory.

Fade of the week – Sabina Mazo ($8,800)

I am spreading my exposure out on most of the favorites this week in GPPs but Mazo is the one I am interested in the least. I think the only way she outscores her $8.8k salary is by getting another head kick KO. I don’t think that is very likely at all and I think a decision win is most likely for her. I don’t see her going for any takedowns or getting many/any knockdowns, so I don’t see how she scores highly in a decision win. I will have zero lineups with Mazo this week and if I was making 100 lineups I would still probably full fade her. Hopefully it doesn’t burn me, but she is my fade of the week.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 63-41for +210.99 (+$21,099) since May 19th on Premium Plays)

Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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