UFC 235 Props of Value
Diego Sanchez vs Mickey Gall
I’ve never really thought much of Mickey Gall. While only 27 years old and still time to grow we just haven’t seen him improve from within his MMA game. He does possess a great grappling background with a talented BJJ repertoire but other than that his striking and cardio are pretty mediocre. As for his opponent, Diego Sanchez, he is just a shot fighter and a small shell of his peak years. It feels like betting on Diego Sanchez in 2019 is equivalent to just burning money right in front of you. If Diego Sanchez can weather the early storm and survive the early onslaught from Gall, then he can use his cardio advantage and pace to take the win. I think there is a chance Sanchez can get a decision win here, but he will just need to not go crazy here (as hard as that is for Diego) and play it safe using his own wrestling, aggression, and takedowns to break down Gall for a decision win.
Prop: Diego Sanchez wins by decision (+336)
Johnny Walker vs Misha Cirkunov
I’m pretty confident in Johnny Walker here. He’ll need to use his speed, massive reach advantage, and striking to get Cirkunov out of there and I do believe he will with a round one, maybe round two knockout. If Cirkunov can survive or defend the knockout attempts then he can work to achieve a takedown to possible submission, but I don’t think he’ll be able to.
Prop: Johnny Walker wins by TKO (-112)
Jeremy Stephens vs Zabit Magomedsharipov
This is a really fun fight and has much potential to be fight of the night in my opinion. Jeremy Stephens is a fun stand-up fighter and Zabit is just a wizard with plentiful finishes under his MMA record. I’m certainly picking Zabit to win but the trouble is picking HOW he wins. Zabit has two paths to victory here which I believe are both likely. He can either outpoint Stephens to a decision win by out striking him or attempt takedowns and secure a submission win as his ground game is much more superior to Stephens. Zabit may want to just go for takedowns and try to secure a submission win as standing and trading with Stephens is not the best idea as Stephens does possess some of the best highlight reel knockouts in the UFC. I’ll lean Zabit by submission here as it’s his safest path to victory.
Prop: Magomedsharipov wins by submission (+280)
Kamaru Usman vs Tyron Woodley
Woodley will want to finish this fight within the first few rounds I’d imagine, because Usman’s pace and aggression will eventually take over the fight as his cardio is just so much better than Woodley’s. Their standup is complete polar opposites and Usman will want to be very cautious when trying to close the distance and avoiding the right hand. If he can do that and put tons of pressure on Woodley to drain his gas tank, then I think this fight is his to lose. Woodley’s knockout power and athleticism are nothing to ignore as he is more than capable of finishing Usman on the feet. I’m leaning Usman here as I think Woodley will sit back too much and not throw enough as he has done in the past allowing Usman to close the distance and win based off pressure and wrestling.
Prop: Usman wins by decision (+260)
Jon Jones vs Anthony Smith
If you look at the betting lines for this fight, you’d think this is a total mismatch and that’s because it is. There is really no light heavyweight who has the tools or skillset to dethrone Jon Jones and this weekend will be no different. The only thing we have to figure out is how Jon Jones wins. I do think he wins by TKO as he will just breakdown and pick apart Smith on the feet until Smith wilts from the shots and pressure of the champion. I’m picking Jon Jones to win by TKO along with a great parlay leg of his points handicap.
Prop: Jon Jones wins by TKO (+110)