UFC 203 Play: Stipe Miocic (-120) vs Alistair Overeem (+110)

Miocic NelsonUFC 203: Miocic vs Overeem Date: September 10, 2016 Arena: Quicken Loans Arena City: Cleveland, OH Heavyweight title bout: Stipe Miocic (-120) vs Alistair Overeem (+110) Fight Breakdown: The main event for UFC 203 on Pay Per View will be UFC heavyweight title fight between defending champion Stipe Miocic and challenger Alistair Overeem, with Miocic being a -120 ($120 to win $100) favorite and Overeem a +110 ($100 to win $110) underdog at Several Bookmakerss. Stipe Miocic (15-2 MMA, 9-2 UFC) is coming off a first round knockout of Fabricio Werdum at UFC 198 nearly four months ago, where he captured the UFC heavyweight title. He now enjoys a three fight winning streak inside the Octagon heading into his first title defense. Miocic is a talented former NCAA Division I wrestler who works excellent takedowns, especially with his single and double-legs, though he does appear to favor the single leg. He works a brutal ground and pound attack on the mat and is generally quite dominant when finding himself in top position. While capable of finishing fights via T/KO and owning 11 career victories in that fashion, he is not much of a threat with submissions, so that is something his opponents generally do not have to worry about. The Ohio native is a former Golden Gloves champion who possesses great boxing skills and is capable of knocking his opponents out, as well as technically outpointing them. He has phenomenal footwork and good head movement, though he keeps his stance too high and makes himself vulnerable to power shots. Miocic works well inside the clinch, has a heavy right hand and does an exellent job of landing counter strikes, as was evident with his aforementioned knockout of Werdum. He is a well conditioned fighter who will likely have enough in the tank for a full five rounds of action in his first title defense, if necessary. Alistair “The Reem” Overeem (11-3-1 NC MMA, 2-3-1 UFC) last saw action at UFC Fight Night 87 four months ago, where he scored a second round TKO of fellow team mate Andrei Arlovski to earn a shot at the UFC heavyweight title. He rides a four fight winning streak and aims to extend it to five by simultaneously capturing the most prestigious title in all of combat sports. “The Reem” has a rocky start in the UFC but appears to have seriously turned things arround since switching from the Blackzilians camp in Boca Raton, FL to Jackson-Wink MMA in Albuqurque, NM. Most notably, his fight IQ and conditioning have improved; one, in my opinion, being a benefit of having Greg Jackson in his corner, and the other for training in high-altitude Albuqurque. I think Overeem will have enough gas in the tank to go a full five rounds against Miocic, should this title fight reach the judges’ scorecards for a decision. The 36 year oldis an excellent striker who comes from a Muay Thai background and has developed a solid grappling game, as well. He is always a knockout threat, but is also capable of simply outpointing his opponents with his superior technical striking. He also has a very underrated grappling game, having solid fundamental in both wrestlng and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu; offensively, as well as defensively. Gabe’s Thoughts: As long as he avoids getting caught and knocked out, I think this is Overeem’s fight to lose. I think he should be a -180 betting favorite heading into this title fight, so I like “The Reem” for a value play at his current offering price of +110. Gabe’s Call: Overeem by T/KO (knee and punches, 3:16 round 2) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Overeem (+110) 2u to win 2.2u

Written by Gabe Killian

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