UFC 199 Play: Alex Caceres (+165) vs Cole Miller (-175)

Alex-CaceresUFC 199: Rockhold vs Bisping Date: June 4, 2016 Arena: The Forum City: Los Angeles, CA Featherweight bout: Alex Caceres (+165) vs Cole Miller (-175) Fight Breakdown: Kicking things off for the UFC 199 prelims on FOX Sports 1 will be a featherweigt contest between The Ultimate Fighter Season 12’s Alex “Bruce Leeroy” Caceres and The Ultimate Fighter Season 5 veteran Cole “Magrinho” Miller. “Bruce Leeroy” is a +165 ($100 to win $165) betting underdog heading into the contest, with “Magrinho”being a -175 ($175 to win $100) favorite to win at Several Bookmakerss. Alex Caceres(11-8-1 NC MMA, 6-5-1 NC UFC) snapped a three fight losing streak and returned to the win column this past January with a unanimous decision victory over Masio Fullen. It also marked Caceres’ return to the UFC’s 145-pound division, which is where he started his Octagon career but suffered back to back rear naked choke submission losses that prompted his move down. This is his second fight back up and he aims to make it two in a row against Miller. A backyard/street fighter turned mixed martial artist, “Bruce Leeroy” possesses great skills on the feet. He is very creative, flashy and above all, effective with his striking. He is a technical and calculated striker but is also good at pouncing and inflicting damage. He’s been very good at landing in volume and racking up points, but has also lately begun developing some knock-out power, as he’s recently been able to hurt and drop opponents . The Ultimate Fighter season 12 veteran puts together phenomenal combinations on the feet, and does a good job of using his length and reach. “Bruce Leeroy” moves smoothly on the feet and is always wearing his trademark smile; to compliment his stand-up, he is incredibly talented on the mat, owning a solid Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game and a very dangerous guard, in which he is quite offensive with the benefit of his long limbs. Training out of the MMA Lab in Glendale, AZ, under the tutelage of John Crouch and with some of the best lighter-weight training partners in the planet, Caceres is constantly improving as a mixed martial artist. He is an incredibly talented athlete who possesses tremendous conditioning, so I have no doubt he will be able to go hard for a full three rounds of action, should the fight go the distance. Cole Miller (21-9-1 NC MMA, 10-7-1 UFC) last saw action at UFC on FOX 17 back in December, where he took on Jim Alers and suffered an accidental eye poke that resulted in the bout being stopped and ultimately a No Contest. After a short break from the cage, he is ready to return to battle and get back into the UFC’s win column at 145-pounds. Miller a tough fighter with above average conditioning. He is pretty durable, has a decent chin and should have enough gas in his tank for three full rounds of action, should this featherweight affair see it’s way to the judges’ scorecards for a decision. The 32-year-old’s striking skills are not great, though he continues to make improvements in the department, as is evident from fight to fight. He moves well on his feet, has developed good footwork and works a solid jab, as well as effective low and high kicks. He works some nice body shots, too, and has shown good defense on the feet as of late. “Magrinho” is very talented on the mat and presents a submission threat every time the fight goes there; the fact that 15 of his 21 professional mixed martial arts career victories come by way of submission certainly reflect that sentiment. Gabe’s Thoughts: I give the striking advantage to Caceres in this bout, as well as a slight wrestling advantage. Should he avoid Miller’s takedown attempts and keep this fight standing, I think he can outpoint him over the course of three rounds to pick up a decision win. Miller is the bigger and stronger fighter with a somewhat superior Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game, so his best route to victory would be to look for takedowns, and then search for submissions from top position on the mat. I think this fight is more or less a coin-flip and a “dog or pass” situation. I am ultimately going to pass making a move on the dog and am instead opting the take the Total of Over 2.5 rounds at -157, as I do favor this fight to hit the judges’ scorecards for a decision more often than not. Gabe’s Call: Caceres by Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Caceres/Miller Over 2.5 rounds (-157) 1.57u to win 1u

Written by Gabe Killian

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