TUF 17 Finale Picks: Urijah Faber (-450) vs. Scott Jorgensen (+360)

Urijah Faber TUF 17 Finale Mandalay Bay Events Center Saturday, April 13, 2013 Five-round Bantamweight Bout: Urijah Faber (-450) vs. Scott Jorgensen (+360) Fight Breakdown: The main event of the TUF 17 Finale is a five-round bantamweight bout between top contenders Urijah Faber and Scott Jorgensen that should prove to be very entertaining. Faber is currently a -450 favorite (bet $450 to win $100) at Several Bookmakers, while the comeback on Jorgensen is currently +360 (bet $100 to win $360). Faber (27-6) is one of the best bantamweight fighters in the world today. The former WEC featherweight champion dropped down to bantamweight after his loss to Jose Aldo back at WEC 48, and he’s since gone 4-2 overall with wins over Ivan Menjivar, Eddie Wineland, Brian Bowles and Takeya Mizugaki and the only losses coming to Dominick Cruz and Renan Barao, the No. 1 and No. 2 fighters in the weight class. The 33-year-old California native is an extremely dangerous fighter in all facets of the game. He’s a strong wrestler, has cardio for days, has incredible submission skills, and he even has a little bit of power. Hungry and motivated to make another run at the title, expect Faber to come into this fight with Jorgensen in peak condition and look to get an impressive finish that shows UFC president Dana White how bad he wants to be a UFC champion. Jorgensen (14-6) is coming off of a duel award-winning performance, as he won the “Submission of the Night” and “Fight of the Night” awards for his bout against John Albert at UFC on FOX 5, a fight which he won via submission at 4:59 of the first round. The 30-year-old is a very solid fighter in all areas of the game, but it’s probably his wrestling that is his best attribute. Jorgensen, who has a notable win over Brad Pickett, believes he’s one of the top bantamweight contenders in the world and that he can still be a world champion one day. However, every time Jorgensen has stepped up in competition in his career (expect for Pickett), he’s lost, so he definitely needs to defeat Faber this weekend if he’s ever going to make another run at the title, as he lost in his bid to become the first-ever UFC bantamweight champion when he was defeated by Cruz at WEC 53. Fight Prediction: This really is Faber’s fight to lose, as he’s just a little bit better than Jorgensen in most facets of the game. Although Jorgensen is definitely a very capable bantamweight, he’s a smaller 135er and Faber is a bigger 135er and when the skills are so close the size difference often plays a factor. Look for Faber to bully Jorgensen around a bit, get him to the ground, and eventually sink in a fight-ending submission. Adam’s Pick: Faber via submission (click for latest MMA odds) Adam’s Recommended Play: I think Faber is the likely winner here but I can’t recommend laying -450 on him when we’ve seen numerous other heavy favorites — Rashad Evans, Jacob Volkmann, Robert Peralta, etc. — lose this year in fights that they should have won on paper. If you parlay Faber, do so at your own risk. Personally, I’m going to be taking a look at the submission prop. Most of Faber’s wins have come via tapout and Jorgensen has shown flaws in his submission defence before so if you can get it at a decent + price, go for it.

Written by Adam Martin.

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