Over/Under Totals for UFC Fight Night 89

theodorou_elias6402UFC Fight Night 89: MacDonald vs Thompson Date: June 18, 2016 Arena: The Arena at TD Place City: Ottawa, Ontario, Canada The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads to Ottawa, Ontario, Canada for the first time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 89: MacDonald vs Thompson. The 13-fight card kicks off with the UFC Fight Pass prelims at 6:45pm ET, with televised prelims to follow on FOX Sports 1 at 8:30pm ET and the main card getting going at 10:30pm ET. If interested in wagering on any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. My Over/Under Totals are: Middleweight bout: Elias Theodorou (-300) vs Sam Alvey (+220) Gabe’s Thoughts: Alvey asked for this match-up during his post-fight speech after knocking out Dan Kelly. UFC matchmakers did not immediately oblige, as both fighters went on to lose in their next bouts. Now with both of them seeing their recent win streaks snapped, they look to get back into the win column and Joe Silva felt it was the appropriate time to pit them against each other inside the Octagon. I know many are high on the TUF: Nations winner Theodorou in this contest, and I personally lean towards him too, but I do not see any value in him whatsoever at his current offering price of -300. At these odds, I do think this is a “dog or pass” situation as far as a straight play is concerned, and I am ultimately going to opt to pass on a play on the dog. Regardless of the outcome, I think this 185-pound contest hits the judges’ scorecards more often than not, and my best guess is that Theodorou either edges it out by outlanding in volume on the feet or outgrappling Alvey. Gabe’s Call: Theodorou by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 2.5 rounds (-200) 2u to win 1u Welterweight bout: Colby Covington (-300) vs Jonathan Meunier (+220) Gabe’s Thoughts: When this match-up was initially announced after Meunier stepped in on short notice for his injured team-mate Alex Garcia, I thought Covington was going to be a key parlay piece for me against the promotional newcomer. However, after further looking into the fight, I am not as confident. In fact, at the current odds, I see this fight as a “dog or pass” situation, but I am ultimately going to pass on making a play on the dog and rather take the Total of Under 2.5 rounds at +145. I think Meunier stands a fair chance of catching and finishing Covington, and should Covington get his hand raised, I think there’s a good chance it will either be a result of submission or ground and pound TKO. Initially, I thought this was going to be Covington 30-27 via wrestling grind and it could still play out that way, but after looking into the fight, I do favor a finish. Gabe’s Call: Covington by Submission (rear naked choke, 4:02 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 2.5 rounds (+145) 1u to win 1.45u

Written by Gabe Killian

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