UFC Fight Night 85 Play: Hector Lombard (-105) vs Neil Magny (-105)

LombardflagUFC Fight Night 85 Date: March 16, 2016 Arena: Brisbane Entertainment Centre City: Brisbane, Australia Middleweight bout: Hector Lombard (-105) vs Neil Magny (-105) Fight Breakdown: The co-main event for UFC Fight Night 85 will be a welterweight contest between former Bellator middleweight champion Hector Lombard and The Ultimate Fighter season 16 veteran Neil Magny, with the betting odds for the bout currently being at a -105 ($105 to win $100) coin-flip at Several Bookmakerss. Hector Lombard (34-4-1-2 NC MMA, 3-2-1 NC UFC) is returning to action after having served his suspension and desperately needs an impressive victory to remain relevant in the UFC’s welterweight division. Lombard has very good striking and has tremendous power, posessing knockout ability in every strike. He has dangerous hands and heavy kicks. The former Bellator middleweight champion is a Southpaw who has a dangerous left hand and likes to use his right to set up the left, and favors the left cross. He has an excellent right hook and a vicious left uppercut. The Cuban is very dangerous inside the clinch; he does a good job of closing the distance, finding his range and inflicting damage upon his opponents, often securing the T/KO finish, as has been the case in 19 of 34 career contests. Lombard has very fast hands and puts together some fantastic combinations on the feet, He has excellent dirty boxing and is very explosive. “Lightning” is a tremendous athlete who competed in the Olympics in the sport of Judo for native Cuba. Owning a black belt in Judo, Lombard has great takedown defense, having strong hips and a solid base. He is a talented grappler, all-around, as he also owns a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and seven career victories by tapout. He works solid takedowns, prefering trips and throws. The 38-year-old trains out of American Top Team in Coconut Creek, FL and his cardio will be something to keep an eye on in this contest. Conditioning has been his main weakness, which at times results in lack of activity in his fights, as he coserves his energy so he does not fade later in the bout. Though I expect Lombad to be at a cardio disadvantage against the cardio-machine that is Neil Magny, I believe he will be able to go a full three, if necessary. Neil Magny (17-4 MMA, 10-3 UFC) currently rides a two-fight winning streak inside the Octagon, with a pair of split decision victories over Erick Silva and Kelvin Gastelum, respectively. The winning streak came after a second round rear naked choke loss to Damien Maia, which snapped a seven-fight winning streak for the Colorado-based welterweight. The ground game has been Magny’s weakness, but he has been making improvements in the department. He generally seems to only get outclassed by elite black belts, while himself getting the better of most fighters on the canvas. The 28-year-old works solid takedowns and is quite effective from top position; both with his ground and pound and submissions. The Ultimate Fighter season 16 veteran moves well on the feet, possessing good footwork and doing a good job of putting the pressure on his opponents. His hands are accurate and he works a clean jab, often prefering to double up on it. Magny trains out of Grudge Training Center and Team Elevation in Denver, CO and possesses tremendous cardio; he will definitely have the edge in conditioning heading into this contest against the veteran Lombard. Gabe’s Call: Lombard by Submission (armbar, 1:33 round 1) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this fight is a step up in competition for Magny and despite his advantages in size/height/reach, I think Lombard will get the better of him everywhere. I see Lombard finishing Magny in this fight by either T/KO or submission, and if it hits the judgs’ scorecads, I favor him to take the decision, as well. I believe Lombard should be a -250 betting favorite heading into this contest, so I really like him for a play at the current coin-flip price of -105. Gabe’s Recommended Play: Lombard (-105) 4.2u to win 4u

Written by Gabe Killian

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