Invicta FC 16 Betting Odds

Invicta FC 16With an off-week in the UFC, plenty of other promotions will be stepping in with cards of their own. Invicta FC will be offering their 16th card on UFC Fight Pass this Friday. The nine-fight card features a pair of title bouts and several intriguing fights for the promotion’s title pictures in their four lightest divisions. Perhaps the brightest of Invicta’s divisions is now the atomweight class, since the UFC has taken most of the talent from both 135 and 115. As such, it is no surprise that champion Ayaka Hamasaki defends her title in the headline bout. She will be taking on the surging Amber Brown, who has won her past four, and secured submissions in three of those bouts. The other title bout on the card is for the interim flyweight title. Champion Barb Honchak has been unable to defend her belt since 2014, so her initial title challenger Vanessa Porto will get a second crack at the strap against fellow Brazilian Jennifer Maia. Porto has won three straight since dropping her title challenge to Honchak, and Maia brings the same streak into this bout. Other notable fights on the card include: former atomweight champion Herica Tiburcio vs. Jihn Yu, Angela Hill vs. Stephanie Eggink, Irene Aldana vs. Jessamyn Duke, DeAnna Bennett vs. Roxanne Modafferi, and Andrea Lee vs. Sarah D’Alelio. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened betting lines for the top seven bouts of Invicta FC 16 today at Several Bookmakers. Take a look: ——————– MAIN CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 8:30pm ET) Ayaka Hamasaki -210 Amber Brown +160 Vanessa Porto -175 Jennifer Maia +135 Angela Hill -140 Stephanie Eggink +100 Irene Aldana -300 Jessamyn Duke +220 DeAnna Bennett -245 Roxanne Modafferi +175 Herica Tiburcio -230 Jihn Yu +170 Andrea Lee -215 Sarah D’Alelio +165 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: I think this card is rife with upset potential. I can see paths to victory for nearly all of the underdogs on the card, and think this could be an opportunity for a very profitable round robin bet. In the main event, Hamasaki is the more skilled fighter, but Brown should have physical advantages which could shut the champion down in the clinch and if she is able to get top position. On the feet, I think the bout is a wash, although Brown may have a bit more power. In the end, it may come down to experience in big fights — which Hamasaki has significantly more of — but this wouldn’t be the first time a more physical American grappler has been able to outduel a Japanese fighter if Brown really can bully (see what I did there? With the nickname?) her way to victory. Vanessa Porto already has a victory over Jennifer Maia, back in 2011 when she won by submission in Brazil. That’s her way to win this fight as well, since Maia is the superior striker. I think Porto can do it again, but I don’t expect a blowout by any means. This fight will be competitive for as long as it lasts, and Porto will probably need more than one takedown to secure the submission she’ll surely be hunting for. Angela Hill should be the better striker than Stephanie Eggink, despite Eggink’s amateur pedigree, and is most certainly the better defensive striker in this matchup. That may not be enough however. Eggink has massive height and reach advantages in this fight, as well as a slick ground game from top or bottom. I think Eggink can keep Hill on the outside of striking exchanges, and then take advantage of the UFC vet should the match eventually hit the mat. I’ve talked a lot about “tall guy defense” but Jessamyn Duke is the living embodiment that it’s not just an affliction of tall guys, “tall girl defense” is a thing too. She seems to love getting punched, and Irene Aldana is one of the heaviest hitters at 135 in women’s MMA. This is the longest line on the card, and the only one where I don’t really see the case for the underdog winning. DeAnna Bennett is better suited to fighting at 125, so I’m glad she’s making the move back there. The cut to 115 just seemed to take too much out of her. I think that even fighting 10lbs heavier, she’ll be able to control the grappling exchanges with Modafferi. On the feet, Modafferi has made excellent strides recently, but I think Bennett’s aggression can slice through those improvements en route to a decision. Is Herica Tiburcio too small for the smallest weight class in MMA? Possibly. At 4’11” without a particularly big build, she’s constantly at a size disadvantage, and this could be another spot where that costs her. If she can’t get this fight to the ground, Jihn Yu Frey is the longer, better striker, and hits significantly harder than the former champ. I’m hoping that the public looks to Tiburcio’s track record and bets her up in this spot. I can’t get Andrea Lee’s loss to Modafferi out of my head when breaking this fight down. She was helpless in the wrestling and grappling exchanges in that one, which was even more surprising because she got bet up in excess of -1000 in that bout. Against D’Alelio, she’s facing a bigger, stronger grappler than Modafferi. D’Alelio may not be the technician that Modafferi is, but I think she’s quite capable of dragging this fight to the mat so long as her first cut to 125 isn’t too hard on her.

Written by Brad Taschuk

Leave a Reply

MMA Odds and Ends for Thursday: Shogun injured, Glover Teixeira now faces Rashad Evans at UFC Fight Night Tampa

Prestige FC 2’s Brad Katona on Josh Rich “I’m going to break him”