Fights to Avoid Betting for UFC 194

Kevin-LeeUFC 194 Date: December 12, 2015 Arena: MGM Grand Garden Arena City: Las Vegas, NV The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will be live and on Pay Per View from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, NV on December 12, 2016 with UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor. The stacked 12-fight card will kick off with Fight Pass prelims at 7pm ET and preliminary action will continue at 8pm ET on FOX Sports 1. The main card will get underway at 10pm ET on Pay Per View. The Aldo vs McGregor featherweight title bout will be headlining the card, and the co-main event will be a middleweight title fight between defending champion Chris Weidman and challenger Luke Rockhold. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. My Fights to AVOID betting are: Featherweight title unification bout: Jose Aldo (+120) vs Conor McGregor (-140) Gabe’s Thoughts: I don’t think I could get myself to wager on this contest. I think Aldo should be the betting favorite, so I see value in him at his current offering underdog price of +120 and think he is the right side for a play here. That said, I can’t get myself to pull the trigger. If it hits the judges’ scorecards for a decision, I favor him to get his hand raised, however I think he could get robbed in such a scenario. I could see a finish coming in this fight on either end, however both fighters are tough to put away, so I think that the chances of a decision win are more likely for each. To conclude, I am going to avoid betting this fight and will just sit back and enjoy it, hopefully following a very profitable evening. I think this is the perfect “sit back and enjoy” fight if there’s ever been one, so let’s keep our wallets away from it. That said, if you’re a big fan of one fighter and strongly dislike the other, go ahead and back your boy. Gabe’s Call: Aldo by T/KO (strikes, 4:54 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Lightweight bout: Kevin Lee (-600) vs Leonardo Santos (+450) Gabe’s Thoughts: I agree with Lee being a heavy favorite in this 155-pound contest, but I don’t think he should be as high as -600. I think he should be a -350 betting favorite here, as at the current odds, I think there is value in the +450 underdog Santos. That said, I cannot get myself to pull the trigger on him, as I just feel confident that Lee is the superior mixed martial artist with the brighter future in the sport and is going to get his hand raised in this match-up, likely in one-sided fashion. I can’t blame anybody for taking a stab at Santos here, but personally, I can’t do it, so for me, this will ultimately have to be a fight to avoid betting at the sportsbooks next Saturday night in Las Vegas. I see Lee keeping this fight on the feet and oustriking Santos for three rounds of action en route to a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. That said, I think a T/KO finish is also a very possible outcome. I believe Santos’ only chance of winning is by catching Lee in a submission and I think the odds of that happening are very slim; though they will be slightly higher if Lee opts to outwrestle Santos, which I could also see him doing. He has very good submission defense, so I see that as another route to victory for the Michigan native in this preliminary card affair. Gabe’s Call: Lee by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Lightweight bout: Joe Proctor (+270) vs Magomed Mustafaev (-330) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Mustafaev should be favored to win at the sportsbooks in this match-up, however I don’t quite agree with his current betting line of -330. I was initially planning on parlaying him, but after doing my homework, I don’t think there is any betting value in him. In fact, I think this is a classic “dog or pass” situation, so I can’t blame anybody for taking a shot at the underdog, but for me personally, this is going to be a fight I avoid playing next weekend. Gabe’s Call: Mustafaev by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Welterweight bout: Court “The Crusher” McGree (-175) vs Marcio “Lyoto” Alexandre, Jr. (+155) Gabe’s Thoughts: McGee returns to action for this welterweight contest following an extended injury layoff and Lyoto looks to pick up the first win of his UFC career, with his back being against the wall heading into this one. I see this as being a closely contested match-up where The Ultimate Fighter 11 winner McGee edges out a decision win on the judges’ scorecards a majority of the time. I don’t think either 170-pounder could be trusted with a wager in this contest and feel this is a fight that should be avoided at the sportsbooks next Saturday night. I will keep my wallet away from this one, sit back and hopefully enjoy. Though I will not be wagering, I am interested in seeing how this scrap plays out and how both fighters look. Gabe’s Call: McGee by Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID

Written by Gabe Killian

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