UFC Fight Night 64 Betting Odds

UFC Fight Night 64The next stop for the UFC will mark the first time the Octagon has ever touched down in Poland. The Krakow Arena will host UFC Fight Night 64, a 12-fight card featuring seven Polish competitors. The main event is a rematch of one of the most shocking results in UFC history, as Gabriel Gonzaga and Mirko ‘CroCop’ Filipovic run back their UFC 70 encounter. CroCop has won three of his four MMA bouts since leaving the UFC back in 2011, with the only loss coming to current UFC fighter Oleksey Oliynyk. He also won the 2012 K-1 World Grand Prix, which was impressive despite a weak field in the tournament that year. The betting line for this fight was released recently with Gonzaga a slight -155 favorite and CroCop a +115 underdog. The rest of the main card features Polish fighters such as Jan Blachowicz and Pawel Pawlak. Blachowicz faces dangerous British striker Jimi Manuwa, while Pawlak takes on TUF Nations finalist Sheldon Westcott. Another pair of Europeans round out the main card, as women’s strawweight contender Joanne Calderwood welcomes Ukraine’s Maryna Moroz to the UFC. With a win, Calderwood could be in line to face Poland’s first UFC champion, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, in her first defense. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for the remaining main card bouts and the entire undercard at Several Bookmakers. Take a look: ——————– MAIN CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 3pm ET)

UFC Fight Night 64 Main

——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 11:15am ET)

UFC Fight Night 64 Prelims

——————– Brad’s Analysis: In the main event, I think that a moderately rejuvenated CroCop may be able to get to Gonzaga’s chin before his own fading chin can be exposed here. It’s not confident by any means, but I wouldn’t be playing Gonzaga especially at the current price of -195. Jimi Manuwa is one of the more devastating first round fighters in MMA today, but Jan Blachowicz hasn’t been finished in a fight since 2007. I think the hometown crowd will help Blachowicz survive the early onslaught from Manuwa, and he should start to take over in rounds two and three, scoring a decision to send the crowd home happy. Pawel Pawlak was very disappointing to me in his UFC debut. I expected him to beat Peter Sobotta, and he really did nothing. Now facing a stronger grappler in Sheldon Westcott, I don’t expect Pawlak to have much success at all, as I think Westcott’s aggression can give him trouble early and his stronger grappling should control the fight late. Joanne Calderwood has had some pretty favorable matchmaking thus far in her UFC career, and that continues here. She’s facing another opponent who is primarily a grappler, but doesn’t have much wrestling. Calderwood should be able to stop all of Moroz’ takedowns and really put some work on her standing. It should be another impressive win for the Scottish fighter, and she may very well get a title shot next. Leon Edwards and Seth Baczynski should be fun, but I’m really not sure how the fight plays out other than that. Baczynski’s defense has been so bad lately, and his chin can sometimes survive and sometimes can’t. Edwards showed such shaky cardio in his UFC debut, and got outwrestled by a very poor wrestler that it’s hard to have much faith in him. This is a fight I’m just staying away from, as most of these prelims will be. South African MMA does not impress me, it’s right up there with Chinese MMA as some of the least developed. I favor Bartosz Fabinski for that reason, but one thing Gareth McClellan has is experience preparing for five rounds fights. That should give him a cardio edge here, but I don’t think it will be enough to overcome Fabinski’s overall more developed game, especially with the hometown advantage the Polish crowd should give him. Mickael Lebout is primarily a grappler, which is wonderful when you’re facing opponents on the French and Polish regional scenes. However, now that he’s facing a world class grappler like Sergio Moraes, I don’t think it’s going to go so well for him. Lebout’s best hope is that he can make Moraes work hard for the takedowns and that the Brazilian tires out, but even then I don’t think he has a great chance here, and I think Moraes taps him relatively quickly. Damian Stasiak was impressive in upsetting British prospect Mike Grundy a couple days ago, but a two week turnaround for your UFC debut is a tough ask. Stasiak is more dangerous on the ground than Meza, but I think the UFC vet might be able to outwork and outlast him in this fight, especially given the extremely short notice. It’s far from confident, but I lean towards the underdog. Another underdog I like is Anthony Hamilton. I think he can replicate Jared Rosholt’s performance against Daniel Omielanczuk, where constant takedowns just left the Polish fighter unable to do much. Hamilton also has a somewhat questionable chin like Rosholt, which Omielanczuk may be able to find, but I have to side with the person more likely to control where this fight goes. Stevie Ray has made some tremendous improvements over the past couple of years, and carved out a nice run for himself in Cage Warriors, including a very entertaining fight against Ivan Buchinger which you should check out if you haven’t already seen. His overall game has come leaps and bounds from his early days in BAMMA, and I think he’s superior to Marcin Bandel everywhere. Bandel has the threat of the early leg lock, but if he doesn’t get that he’s got no other way to win this fight. Ray will likely be a parlay key for me on this card. The last two fights I really haven’t had time to research, other than Google image searching Aleksandra Albu. You’ll have to ask me closer to these fights on twitter if you’re really interested in my opinion on them.

Written by Brad Taschuk

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