Prop Plays for UFC Fight Night 63 in Virginia

Mendes vsThe Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to the Patriot Center in Fairfax, VA tomorrow night for the third time in promotion history with UFC Fight Night 63, which will be headlined by a five round main event contest between top featherweights Chad “Money” Mendes and Ricardo “The Bully” Lamas. The main card action will kick off with six scheduled bouts at 1pm ET on FOX Sports 1, with a four-fight preliminary card preceding it on the same channel at 11am ET. If interested in wagering on this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. Here are my prop plays for UFC Fight Night 63 in Virginia: Chad Mendes (+410) vs Ricardo Lamas (+365) Mendes ITD (+150) .5u to win .75u Mendes by Submission (+1307) .2u to win 2.61u Mendes -5.5 (-215) 1.72u to win .8u I think Mendes has a decent chance of finishing this fight by either T/KO or submission, and if hits the judges’ scorecards for a decision, I think there’s a decent chance he will get a unanimous 50-45 nod. That said, I am favoring the finish. I lean towards a T/KO, but won’t count out the possibility of Mendes latching onto his neck and ending the fight with a guillotine, similar to how Lamas put away his most recent opponent Dennis Bermudez. So rather than playing the T/KO prop at +170, I’m opting to keep it safe by playing the ITD prop at +150, while putting a little something on the Submission prop at +1307, which I think holds great value. Al Iaquinta (-102) vs Jorge Masvidal (-108) Iaquinta +3.5 (-240) 1.2u to win .5u I favor Iaquinta to get his hand raised in this match-up, and even more so after seeing Masvidal have some trouble making weight. However, should he end up losing, I think it will be by close decision, most likely split, in which case this prop will cash. For a full write-up on this lightweight scrap, check out my fight article for the contest. Carlos Diego Ferreira (+165) vs Dustin Poirier (-175) Ferreira +3.5 (-140) 1.4u to win .1u I think Ferreira is the better fighter on the feet and on the mat. I think he should be the betting favorite in this contest and like him to win the fight straight up, but should he lose, I think it will be a close decision, in which case this prop will cash and save me a unit from my straight play on him. For a full write-up of this 155-pound affair, check out my fight article for the bout. Alexander Yakovlev (-125) vs Gray Maynard (+115) Yakovlev in Round One (+400) .25u to win 1u To put it simply, if Maynard doesn’t immediately close the distance and look to take this fight to the mat, I think he stands a fair chance of being put away by Yakovlev, and at +400, I think it’s worth a little stab. I also have a play on Yakovlev by T/KO at +300, but the line fell to +250 and I don’t think it holds enough value to recommend a play anymore. I think the Russian gets the finish in this fight, and it could come in any round, but the first is most likely. Justin Jones (-130) vs Ron Stallings (+120) Jones by Submission (+410) .5u to win 2.05u Jones -3.5 (+110) .5u to win .55u I think Jones is the superior mixed martial artist heading into this contest and I favor him to get the finish. It could come by either T/KO or submission, but I like his chances of earning the submission more, especially considering he has a mean guillotine choke, and likely all he would need is to get a hold of Stallings’ neck. I played Jones by Submission at +615, and it has fallen to the current tag of +410, but unlike the Yakovlev T/KO prop, I think this one still holds enough value to recommend for a play.

Written by Gabe Killian

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