Prop Plays for WSOF 19

Thiago SilvaWSOF 19 Date: March 28, 2015 Arena: Comerica Bank City: Phoenix, AZ WSOF 19 will be live on the NBC Sports Network tonight at 9pm ET with a four fight main card, with a seven fight preliminary card to precede it on at 6:30pm ET. If interested in wagering on any of these prop bets or any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. My prop plays for WSOF 19 are: Lightweight title bout: Justin Gaethje (-410) vs Luis Palomino (+365) Fight Doesn’t Go Distance (-230) 1.15u to win .5u Palomino ITD (+550) .2u to win 1.1u I think this fight ends inside the distance more often than not, and while I slightly lean towards the champion Gaethje to get the finish, I think the Peruvian challenger Palomino has a good chance of ending the fight, as well. There is the possibility that Gaethje could opt to turn this into a wrestling match and may even find success there, but Palomino does have very good takedown defense, so it really is a question mark whether Gaethje will (initially or eventually) be able to secure a takedown. However, that is just a minor possibility, as the more likely scenario is that the undefeated Gaethje will want to put Palomino away on the feet, which is what I expect his goal to be heading into this contest, as would be the identical goal of the Peruvian’s. I think this is going to be an entertaining war, and one that likely culminates with a highlight-reel finish. Light Heavyweight bout: Matt Hamill (+435) vs Thiago Silva (-500) Silva by Decision (+261) .25u to win .65u Hamill ITD (+1387) .3u to win 4.16u I have no reason to assume this rematch will play out any different than when these two initially met, so Silva by Decision at +261 is worth a shot. The Brazilian has had a lot of personal troubles and really has a lot of question marks surrounding him heading into this contest. I think it is 50/50 whether he shows up hungry or whether he shows up looking to cash a paycheck. If his only motivation to get up for this fight is the dollars behind it, then I think there is a somewhat decent chance Hamill manages to finish him tonight, which brings value to the Hamill ITD prop at +1387. If Silva shows up hungry, I would not be surprised to see him finish Hamill, but a decision would be as likely and holds a lot more value at the sportsbooks. Bantamweight bout: Ed West (-345) vs Timur Valiev (-385) Fight Goes Distance (-160) .8u to win .5u Valiev by Decision (-120) .3u to win .25u Simply put, I think this bantamweight scrap hits the judges’ scorecards more often than not, where I see the Valiev getting his hand raised more often than not. Training out of Jackson-Winklejohn MMA, I believe the Dagestani fighter is the superior mixed martial artist heading into this bout at this point in their careers, and while West may keep things competitive, I expect him to get the better of the veteran and get his hand raised after three rounds of action.

Written by Gabe Killian

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