UFC 184 Date: 02/28/15 Arena: Staples Center City: Los Angeles, CA The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) finally returns to Los Angeles tonight (February 28, 2014) for UFC 184. The event will feature an entirety of 11-bouts, including a five-fight main card that will be live on Pay Per View at 10pm ET. Preliminary action will precede it at 8pm ET on FOX Sports 1, with a pair of scraps coming before that on UFC Fight Pass at 7pm ET. If interested on making any wagers for this fight card, all lines will be made available to you at Several Bookmakerss. My prop plays for UFC F184 are: Women’s Bantamweight title bout: Cat Zingano (+570) vs Ronda Rousey (-705) Rousey by Submission (-195) 3.9u to win 2u Rousey -9.5 (-485) 4.85u to win 1u Basically, I’m loading up on Rousey in this fight and feel confident she is going to continue her dominance against the also-undefeated Zingano this evening. I see her wrapping things up with another submission victory following her back-to-back T/KO’s, and more than likely I think it happens in the first round of action. I’m making straight big plays on Rousey at heavy-juiced odds for this fight, which is something I will rarely ever do. I am just not at all buying that Zingano is going to be a challenge for her. From my POV, Rousey vs Zingano is metaphorically Cain Velasquez vs Ruan Potts. I believe they are worlds apart in levels of skill-sets. Rousey will completely dominate her on the mat, and while Zingano has been striking a lot longer than Rousey, I think she can get the better of Zingano there, as well. For my full write-up on this main event bout, I refer you to my fight article for the contest. Women’s Bantamweight bout: Holly Holm (-700) vs Raquel Pennington Holm by Decision (-110) 2.75u to win 2.5u To put it simply, I think this is the most likely outcome to this women’s bantamweight match-up. I think Holm defeats Pennington via decision much more often than she earns a T/KO stoppage. Throw in the fact that this is her UFC debut and it is in a co-main event Pay Per View slot, I think she will be having Octagon jitters. I think she’ll keep this on the feet for the majority of 15-minutes of action and will pick up a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. Welterweight bout: Jake Ellenberger (-192) vs Josh Koscheck (+177) Koscheck by Decision (+502) .5u to win 2.51u I favor Koscheck to get his hand raised at the end of this contest, and I favor a decision slightly more than a stoppage. At +502, I think it’s worth a shot. Welterweight bout: Alan Jouban (-310) vs Richard Walsh (+280) Jouban by Submission (+1025) 1u to win 10.25u He has only displayed his solid striking thus far in his Octagon career but don’t sleep on Jouban’s ground-game. He is an exceptional Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner who owns a brown-belt under Eddie Bravo, and make no mistake, if this fight hits the mat, Walsh will be in a world of trouble. I think Jouban has an easy path to victory if he decides to grapple and is able to take Walsh down. That said, I think he could even submit Walsh off his back, but I don’t know if he would pull guard, considering how much he loves to strike. If Jouban were not such a great striker, I would think this prop has a better chance of cashing, but reality is he will likely be looking for a knockout before he thinks about testing Walsh on the mat. Though, I do hope he plans on testing him on the mat sooner or later, because again, I believe he has a massive edge in grappling. Walsh is a purple belt and can certainly hold his own against most, but I think Jouban is on another level, especially under the 10th Planet system. Lightweight bout: Gleison Tibau (+220) vs Tony Ferguson (-240) Ferguson -3.5 (+105) 2u to win 2.1u I expect “El Cucuy” to extend his winning streak tonight and I think he will either get a finish or earn a convincing unanimous decision on the judges’ scorecards. For my full write-up on this 155-pound affair, please check out my fight article for the bout. Welterweight bout: Dhiego Lima (+130) vs Tim Means (-140) Lima/Means Goes the Distance (-135) 1.35u to win 1u Lima by Decision (+285) 1u to win 2.85u I think this fight will be closely contested on the feet but I see Lima securing takedowns and spending some time in top position on the mat to edge the rounds in the eyes of the judges at Octagon-side. Lima has said that he plans to stand and trade with Means, and while I think a striking war between these two could play out for three rounds, I can’t help but think he is going to try to take him down, as well. Also, it is possible that he is talking about having a striking battle but in reality is planning on outgrappling Means; it certainly would not be the first nor last time a fighter has done that to throw his opponents off a bit. While both Lima and Means possess finishing abilities, especially Means with his precise striking and knockout power, I think this is a fight that hits the judges’ scorecards more often than not, and following three competitive rounds of action, I favor Lima to get his hand raised. Heavyweight bout: Derrick Lewis (-525) vs Ruan Potts (+450) Lewis Inside the Distance (-295) 1.77u to win .6u Fight Won’t Start Round Two (-141) 1.41u to win 1u Fight Won’t Start Round Three (-361) 1.8u to win .5u I am expecting the outcome everybody else who has ever seen these two heavyweights fight is expecting: Derrick Lewis by T/KO in the very first round of action. I feel confident he gets the job done, but I felt as confident Walt Harris would defeat Nikita Krylov and look how that turned out. With heavyweights, you just never know, but I do believe Lewis wins this fight within 10-minutes of action more than 80% of the time.
