Live Dogs for UFC 184 in Los Angeles

Josh KoscheckUFC 184 Date: 02/28/15 Arena: Staples Center City: Los Angeles, CA The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is finally set to return to Los Angeles this Saturday night (February 28, 2014) for UFC 184. The event will feature an entirety of 11 bouts, including a five-fight main card that will be live on Pay Per View at 10pm ET. Preliminary action will precede it at 8pm ET on FOX Sports 1, with a pair of scraps coming before that on UFC Fight Pass at 7pm ET. If interested in wagering on these underdogs, or any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available to you at Several Bookmakerss. My live dogs for UFC 184 are: Welterweight bout: Jake Ellenberger (-192) vs Josh Koscheck (+177) Gabe’s Thoughts: Both fighters are on three fight losing streaks and are in dire need of a win tonight. Let’s take a look at their three defeats. Ellenberger completely froze against Rory MacDonald and was a fish out of water against the Canadian, going on to lose a unanimous decision on the judges’ scorecards. He was stopped by current UFC welterweight champion Robbie Lawler via third round TKO in his next outing, and then followed that up with a first round rear naked choke loss to Kelvin Gastelum. He has suffered three very blatant losses, but with Koscheck, you can put an asterisk to all three of his defeats. First, he came up short against Johny Hendricks in a split decision loss. It was a very controversial decision and I personally thought Koscheck had clearly won the fight. He followed that up with back-to-back first round knockouts to Tyron Woodley and the aforementioned Lawler, respectively, but neither knockout came without some controversy. Koscheck was hurt on both occasions and was likely close to being finished, but the referees intervened just a bit too early. Up until the point of the knockouts, he was actually looking good in the fights, especially against Woodley, who he hurt before getting caught. Those details aside, I think Koscheck is the better fighter between these two 170-pounders. I would favor him at coin-flip odds here, so I really like him at his current underdog tag of +177. I could see him knocking Ellenberger out, choking him out or winning a decision on the judges’ scorecards. I see them all as very realistic and possible outcomes, but I favor the decision slightly more, as Koscheck is a fighter with good fight IQ who will likely mix things up to makes sure he secures rounds on the judges’ scorecards. Although, that seemed to have been working against Hendricks and he still lost a decision there, so you never know with the judges’. I could not justify betting Ellenberger because of all the mental issues he has been having, especially at -192. This is what some may consider a “dog or pass” fight, but I think the value on the dog is too good to pass up, so the play has to be Koscheck. Despite the back to back knockouts and extended layoff, I think Kos should be a -160 favorite in this match-up, so I’ll happily take the +177 and hope to collect. Gabe’s Call: Koscheck by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Koscheck (+177) 3.65u to win 6.46u Lightweight bout: Dhiego Lima (+130) vs Tim Means (-140) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this fight will be competitive on the feet, but I give the edge to Means there, however I think Lima will be mixing in takedowns to secure rounds on the judges’ scorecards. If it stays completely on the feet, I would not be shocked to see Lima pull out a decision, but I do see him trying to take Means down. I’m not sure how good Lima’s fight IQ is; if I knew for sure he would be looking to spend a decent amount of time in top position in this fight, then I would be more confident in playing him. If he goes into this fight with the correct game-plan, I think he will walk away with the victory. I think the Atlanta-based Brazilian should be a -140 favorite headed into this contest, so at his current underdog tag of +130, I’ll take a shot with him. Also look for my props article for this bout, as I will have another play or two for this 155-pound preliminary card bout. Gabe’s Call: Lima by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Lima (+130) 1.5u to win 1.95u

Written by Gabe Killian

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