Event: The Ultimate Fighter 16 Finale Matchup: Mike Ricci (-245) vs. Colton Smith (+185) for TUF 16 title Location: Hard Rock, Las Vegas, Nevada Time: 9 p.m. (ET) on Saturday, December 15, 2012 How to Watch: FX TALE OF THE TAPE: THE FAVORITE Name: Mike Ricci MMA Record: 7-2 UFC Record: 0-0 Age: 26 Nationality: Canadian Height: 6-0 Weight: 170 pounds Style: Striker Camp: TriStar Strengths: Striking, trains with great camp, good fight IQ Weaknesses: Chin Last 5 Fights: W – Tony Hervey (UD), L – Daron Cruickshank (UD), W – Jesse Ronson (TKO), L – Pat Curran (KO), W – Jordan Mein (UD) Notable Career Wins: Ronson Notable Career Losses: Cruickshank, Curran Notable Career Achievements: None Keys to Victory: Test Smith’s chin, stop the takedown TALE OF THE TAPE: THE UNDERDOG Name: Colton Smith MMA Record: 3-1 UFC Record: 0-0 Age: 25 Nationality: American Height: 6-0 Weight: 170 pounds Style: Wrestling Camp: Vanguard Strengths: Wrestling, toughness, grittiness Weaknesses: Inexperience, not much striking, poor striking defence Last 5 Fights: L – Steve Montgomery (KO), W – Walter Coles (SUB), W – Brian Nielson (SUB), W – William Bookwalter (SUB) Notable Career Wins: None Notable Career Losses: None Notable Career Achievements: None Keys to Victory: Get the takedown, make it dirty, grind it out FIGHT BREAKDOWN, PREDICTION, PICK & BET The title of “The Ultimate Fighter” for Season 16 will be on the line as Canada’s Mike Ricci takes on American Colton Smith in a three-round fight. Ricci is a teammate of Rory MacDonald at TriStar Gym in Montreal and, like his famous training partner, is extremely skilled on the feet. He is an excellent prospect who has some big-show experience already, and if he can keep the fight with Smith on the feet, he has a very good chance of winning the TUF contract. Smith is a grinder, and he wins by making fights dirty. There is no way he’s as talented as Ricci is, but he might have the style to defeat him. If he can get the takedown, push Ricci against the cage and survive Ricci’s onslaught on the feet, then he has a chance for the upset. However, he needs to follow that gameplan because if he just tries to stand with Ricci for three rounds, then he is probably going to get knocked out. Adam’s Fight Prediction: Mike Ricci will do enough on the feet to outpoint Colton Smith, but Smith is a tough guy and Ricci won’t be able to finish him. Smith will try to make it a gritty scrap, but ultimately Ricci’s superior talents on the feet will shine through. Adam’s Pick: Mike Ricci (-245) via decision (click for latest MMA odds). Adam’s Recommended Play: Although I like Mike Ricci for the pick, I’m tempted to make a play on Smith at near +200 and maybe throw him in a round robin. Ultimately, though, I will probably pass altogether.