Event: The Ultimate Fighter 16 Finale Matchup: Roy Nelson (-210) vs. Matt Mitrione (+160) in main event heavyweight bout Location: Hard Rock, Las Vegas, NV Time: 9 p.m. (ET) on Saturday, December 15, 2012 How to watch: FX TALE OF THE TAPE: THE FAVORITE Name: Roy Nelson MMA Record: 17-7 UFC Record: 4-3 Age: 36 Nationality: American Height: 6-0 Weight: 254 pounds Style: Brawling, Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Camp: Country Club Strengths: Chin, knockout power, BJJ, experience Weaknesses: Hitability, cardio Last 5 Fights: W – Dave Herman (KO), L – Fabricio Werdum (UD), W – Mirko Cro Cop (TKO), L – Frank Mir (UD), L – Junior dos Santos (UD) Notable Career Wins: Stefan Struve (TKO), Brendan Schaub (KO), Cro Cop Notable Career Losses: dos Santos, Werdum, Frank Mir (UD), Ben Rothwell (UD), Andrei Arlovski (KO) Notable Career Achievements: Former IFL heavyweight champion Keys to Victory: Test Mitrione’s chin on the feet, try to get the fight to the ground and submit him TALE OF THE TAPE: THE UNDERDOG Name: Matt Mitrione MMA Record: 5-1 UFC Record: 5-1 Age: 34 Nationality: American Height: 6-3 Weight: 254 pounds Style: Striking Camp: Blackzilians Strengths: Athleticism, knockout power, cardio Weaknesses: Long layoff, wrestling Last 5 Fights: L – Cheick Kongo (UD), W – Christian Morecraft (KO), W – Tim Hague (TKO), W – Joey Beltran (UD), W – Kimbo Slice (TKO) Notable Career Wins: Kimbo Slice (TKO) Notable Career Losses: Cheick Kongo (UD) Notable Career Achievements: none Keys to Victory: Keep the fight standing, grind it out, push the pace, test Nelson’s cardio FIGHT BREAKDOWN, PREDICTION, PICK & BET In the five-round main event of the evening, former Season 10 winner of “The Ultimate Fighter” Roy Nelson takes on fellow TUF alum Matt Mitrione in what should be a hard-hitting heavyweight affair. Nelson is coming off a massive one-punch knockout win over Dave Herman at UFC 146 and was set to fight Shane Carwin until a knee injury took him out of the fight. Nelson has knockout power as well as a slick ground game, but his cardio is going to be tested by Mitirone in a five-round fight. Mitrione took this fight on relatively short notice, but he’s a very athletic guy who always shows up in great shape, so despite the late notice and a long injury layoff himself, he should still have better cardio than Nelson. Mitrione has bombs in his hands, but it’s going to be very difficult for him to knock out the iron-chinned Nelson, so his best chance might be to make it a dirty fight and try to take it into the deep waters and grind out the decision. Adam’s Fight Prediction: I think the fight is going to take place primarily on the feet, and in a five-round fight, I see Nelson eventually being able to catch Mitrione with one of his bomb and finishing him off with a TKO. Adam’s Pick: Roy Nelson (-210) via TKO (click for latest MMA odds). Adam’s Recommended Play: This is a pass for me.