Gabe Killian’s Prop Plays for UFC Fight Night 57

ufc-156UFC Fight Night 57 Date: November 22, 2014 Arena: Frank Erwin Center City: Austin, TX The Ultimate Fighting Championship will be live from Austin, TX this Saturday night with UFC Fight Night 57. The event will feature a 12-fight card, including a six-fight main card that will be headlined by a featherweight tilt between Frankie Edgar and Cub Swanson. Main card action gets going at 10pm ET on FOX Sports 1, with the preliminary card preceding it on the same channel at 8pm ET, and two fights getting the night going on UFC Fight Pass at 7pm ET. If interested in wagering on the props suggested in this article, or any other props or wagers, you may do so at Several Bookmakerss. My prop plays for UFC Fight Night 57 in Austin are: Cub Swanson (+170) vs Frankie Edgar (-185) Swanson by T/KO (+585) .6u to win 3.51u Swanson in Round One (+1100) .4u to win 4.4u Swanson in Round Two (+1300) .4u to win 5.2u Edgar by Submission (+795) .4u to win 3.18u I see value in all of these lines. In total, I am risking only 1.8u, and if at least one of them hits, I’m good! Of course, the most likely outcome of this fight is a judges’ decision, but in my opinion, these are the four props that hold the most value, in terms of risk vs reward. I think there is a decent chance that Swanson hurts Edgar, and if that happens, I favor his chances of getting the finish. Swanson has killer instinct, heavy limbs and is a definite finisher, which is something Edgar’s previous opponents have not been, save Jose Aldo. Edgar has an under-rated Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game, while Swanson has previously displayed holes in his submission defense, so I think it is a realistic possibility that Edgar could catch him with a choke during a scramble. At the current underdog price of +795, I think it’s worth a stab. Bobby Green (+125) vs Edson Barboza (-135) Green +3.5 (-170) 1.7u to win 1u To put it simply, I don’t think Barboza will finish Green or manage to best him for all three rounds of action. I actually favor Green to get the better of the Brazilian for two out of three rounds en route to a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards, but if he loses, I think it will be a closely contested decision, possibly a split. Brad Pickett (-200) vs Chico Camus (+185) Camus +3.5 (-140) 1.4u to win 1u Like with Green, I am straight up picking Camus to win this match-up, as I think he will be able to get the better of Pickett in certain areas. I think he will make it a real dog fight, which is something Pickett loves, but will also mix in takedowns and grind the Brit out. I’m not expecting it to be pretty, but I feel Camus is going to deliver the best performance of his career in this fight, which is also his debut at 125 pounds. If he loses, I think it will most likely be a closely contested decision, in which case this prop will cash and save us a unit.   Dustin Ortiz (+370) vs Joseph Benavidez (-415) Benavidez by Submission (+450) .5u to win 2.25u Ortiz by T/KO (+1300) .25u to win 3.25u I think Benavidez winning by submission or decision are equally likely, and I think there is great value in him winning by submission at +450, considering he is -450 to win straight up. Benavidez winning a decision does not offer nearly enough value at -103, so it isn’t worth a bet, however there’s a world of value in the aforementioned submission prop at +450! I am hedging with Ortiz by T/KO at +1300, as I think he has solid striking skills and is capable of knocking Benavidez out, if Benavidez does indeed have a declining beard. If “Mighty Mouse” was able to put him away, I would not be surprised to see Ortiz do the same. Contrary to popular opinion, I can’t see Ortiz edging a decision over Benavidez, unless it is a controversial one he does not deserve. I could see him maybe winning one round but I think Benavidez will be a step ahead and prove to be too much for him; I don’t see Ortiz getting the better of the Alpha Male product for two out of three rounds to pick up a decision. In my opinion, his chances of earning a knockout are slightly greater than doing enough over 15 minutes to earn a decision. That said, he is a fighter who is constantly improving and gets better fight to fight. We will see the best Dustin Ortiz we’ve ever seen, but will it be good enough to defeat Benavidez? I don’t think so, but the night will tell the tale.

Written by Gabe Killian

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Five Fights To Get You Excited For UFC Fight Night 57

UFC Fight Night 57 Play: Dustin Ortiz (+370) vs Joseph Benavidez (-415)