Gabe Killian’s Live Dogs for UFC Fight Night 57

Cub SwansonUFC Fight Night 57 Date: November 22, 2014 Arena: Frank Erwin Center City: Austin, TX The Ultimate Fighting Championship will be live from Austin, TX this Saturday night with UFC Fight Night 57. The event will feature a 12-fight card, including a six-fight main card that will be headlined by a featherweight tilt between Frankie Edgar and Cub Swanson. Main card action gets going at 10pm ET on FOX Sports 1, with the preliminary card preceding it on the same channel at 8pm ET, and two fights getting the night going on UFC Fight Pass at 7pm ET. If interested in wagering on these proposition plays, or any other plays for this fight card, you may do so at Several Bookmakerss. My live dogs for UFC Fight Night 57 in Austin are: Featherweight bout: Cub Swanson (+170) vs Frankie Edgar (-200) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think the betting odds for this bout should be closer to a coin-flip, and with Swanson being the slight favorite. He will have advantages in size and power over Edgar, so if he hurts him with his shorts, I think he will manage to put him away. He is a better finisher than Gray Maynard and Benson Henderson, two fighters who failed to put “The Answer” away. Especially Maynard, who had Edgar hurt in the first round of both bouts and failed to finish. Also unlike Maynard, Swanson has superb cardio and will not gas himself out after going hard for a round. I think this is going to be a very entertaining fight; one that I could see ending in the first round or going all five. In either case, I have no doubt it is going to be incredibly entertaining. If the odds were a lot tighter, which I think they should be, I would have avoided a bet here, but I see value in Swanson at +170, especially when I lean with him to win the fight, so I’m going to have to make a move. Gabe’s Call: Swanson by T/KO (punches, 4:56 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Cub Swanson (+170) 2u to win 3.4u Flyweight bout: Brad Pickett (-210) vs Chico Camus (+175) Gabe’s Thoughts: Camus is finally dropping down to the 125 pound division, where he should have been fighting all along. He’s had an impressive run at bantamweight but I think he will fair even better in this division, and I like his chances in this particular match-up. Pickett has not looked good at flyweight and said he was going back up to 135 pounds after his last loss to Ian McCall. He appears to have changed his mind, or the UFC was just not on the same page in those regards. In either case, he is still fighting in the flyweight division, where he has yet to really shine. This could be the match-up for him to do so, but I think a motivated Camus will be a tough match-up for him, as I see the Milwaukee native using his solid striking to set up takedowns and grind Pickett out for a closely contested unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. This is tough for me to say, because I have never been big on Camus, while I have been a big Pickett fan. I would usually love to bet guys I love against guys I haven’t been particularly fond of, but in this case I can’t do that, because I believe Camus has a good chance at getting the upset victory, and I favor him to do so. Gabe’s Call: Camus by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Chico Camus (+175) 2u to win 3.5u Heavyweight bout: Jared Rosholt (-235) vs Oleksiy Oliynyk (+195) Gabe’s Thoughts: I expect this fight to take place on the mat, and contrary to popular opinion, I think that will be dangerous waters for Rosholt, as I think there is a decent chance that the veteran submission grappler locks a hold of something and earns a tap. On the feet, I think the Russian can get the better of Rosholt, and on the mat, I think he will be able to submit him a good percentage of the time. I think Rosholt’s only way to win this fight is to grind and wear Oliynyk out and I think the Russian veteran is not the easiest opponent to do that against, so if Rosholt does indeed manage to pick up the win, it will take a lot more effort than his current line of -235 suggests. I don’t think he should be that big of a favorite here. In fact, I think the Ukrainian should be a slight favorite heading into this heavyweight match-up. Gabe’s Call: Oliynyk by Submission (armbar, 1:31 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Oleksiy Oliynik (+195) 2u to win 3.9u

Written by Gabe Killian

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