UFC on FUEL TV 6 Tale of the Tape: Thiago Silva (-305) vs. Stanislav Nedkov (+235)

Thiago Silva vs. Stanislav NedkovEvent: UFC on FUEL TV 6: Franklin vs. Le Matchup: Thiago Silva (-305) vs. Stanislav Nedkov (+235) Location: CotaiArena, Macao, China Time: 9 a.m. (ET) How to watch: FUEL TV TALE OF THE TAPE: THE FAVORITE Name: Thiago Silva MMA Record: 14-3, 1 No-Contest UFC Record: 5-3, 1 No-Contest Age: 29 Nationality: Brazilian Height: 6-1 Weight: 205 pounds Style: Muay Thai/Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Camp: Blackzilians Strengths: Striking, Octagon experience Weaknesses: Injuries, inactivity Last 5 Fights: L – Alexander Gustafsson (UD), NC – Brandon Vera (win overturned due to falsifying urine sample), L – Rashad Evans (UD), W – Keith Jardine (KO), L – Lyoto Machida (KO) Notable Career Wins: Keith Jardine (KO, Houston Alexander (TKO), James Irvin (TKO) Notable Career Losses: Alexander Gustafsson (UD), Rashad Evans (UD), Lyoto Machida (KO) Notable Career Achievements: None Keys to Victory: Be aggressive, mix in striking and takedowns, avoid Nedkov’s big right hand TALE OF THE TAPE: THE UNDERDOG Name: Stanislav Nedkov MMA Record: 12-0 UFC Record: 1-0 Age: 30 Nationality: Bulgarian Height: 5-11 Weight: 205 pounds Style: Brawling, BJJ Camp: Bulgarian Federation of Mixed Martial Sports Strengths: Heavy hands, ground and pound, toughness, heart Weaknesses: Striking defense, injuries, inactivity Last 5 Fights: W – Luiz Cane (TKO), W – Augustin Helgiu (SUB)), W – Kevin Randleman (SD), W – Travis Wiuff (TKO), W – Masayuki Kono (TKO) Notable Career Wins: Luiz Cane (TKO), Kevin Randleman (SD), Travis Wiuff (TKO) Notable Career Losses: None Notable Career Achievements: None Keys to Victory: Look for the knockout FIGHT BREAKDOWN, PREDICTION, PICK & BET The co-main event of UFC on FUEL TV 6 is a light heavyweight contest pitting UFC veteran Thiago Silva against the undefeated Stanislav Nedkov. Silva is a fan favorite who is known for his aggression and knockout power, holding 11 of his 14 career wins via TKO/KO. However, the last time he knocked someone out, and actually the last time he won a fight, was all the way back in August 2009 when he beat the extremely chinny Keith Jardine. Overall, Silva is a poor 1-3 with one NC in his last five bouts, although the losses came to elite competition in Lyoto Machida, Rashad Evans, and Alexander Gustafsson. The NC was originally a dominating win over Brandon Vera at UFC 125, but it was overturned when Silva falsified a urine sample because he had taken banned painkillers for his bad back, an injury that forced him out of a scheduled fight this summer against Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. Silva is a talented fighter and age-wise is in the prime of his career, but considering his inactivity and the fact he hasn’t won a fight in three years, he’s a guy you need to be careful betting on. Nedkov is his undefeated opponent, and the Bulgarian is one tough cookie. He is an extremely heavy hitter and he has a ton of heart, as both Luiz Cane and Travis Wiuff found out the hard way. Both Cane and Wiuff were beating Nedkov, who ended up knocking each of them out. Remember that Nedkov is still undefeated, and no fighter ever wants to lose that goose egg off their resume, so Silva will have to work hard to put him away. If this fight stays on the feet, Silva holds the technical edge while Nedkov has the sheer power. On the ground, both guys are black belts in BJJ, although we haven’t seen Nedkov’s submissions in the UFC yet, since he hasn’t fought in over a year due to injuries and visa issues. Another thing going against him is that he’s undersized for 205 pounds, but as he showed in the fight with Wiuff, the fact that he doesn’t need to cut a ton of weight makes him dangerous in the third round. If Nedkov’s able to connect on Silva, he has a legitimate chance of stopping him. Adam’s Fight Prediction: I’m going against the general consensus and picking Stanislav Nedkov to win the fight via first-round TKO. I think this fight will be a brawl while it lasts, and he’s going to be able to catch Silva at some point in the first few minutes and put him away. Adam’s Pick: Stanislav Nedkov (+235) is my pick. Adam’s Recommended Play: I would never recommend betting on a guy who I don’t think has a chance at winning. Nearing +300 in some spots now, I truly believe there is value in Stanislav Nedkov, and he’s worth a small play as a value dog. And even if you do favor Thiago Silva to win, at -305 – and now closer to -350 in some spots (click to check the latest MMA odds) – that’s way too high of a price to pay for a guy who hasn’t won a fight in three years. In my opinion, Silva is a bad bet. It is either dog or pass in this fight.

Written by Adam Martin.

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