MMA Betting Preview: UFC on FUEL TV 6 Facebook Prelims Odds Breakdown

Event: UFC on FUEL TV 6: Franklin vs. Le Date: Saturday, November 10, 2012 Location: CotaiArena, Macao, China How to Watch: Preliminary card streams on at 7:15 a.m. ET/4:15 a.m. PT UFC on FUEL TV 6 airs live on Saturday morning in North America with some very early preliminary fights, so for you hardcore MMA fans who are going to get up early and watch, has you covered with a preview of the Facebook prelims, which feature four very fun fights. The first bout will see American welterweight David Mitchell (11-2) take on Korean prospect Hyun Gyu Lim (10-3-1), who is making his UFC debut. Lim opened as a -245 favorite (bet $245 to win $100) with Mitchell a +185 underdog (bet $100 to win $185). The 27-year old Lim is a very promising young fighter from Korea who has finished opponents in nine of his 10 wins, including seven via knockout and two by submission. He is an awesome boxer with an 82-inch reach and has stopped his last five opponents in the first round. He also holds a KO win over UFC veteran Lucio Linhares, but something to watch out for against Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace Mitchell is that he’s been submitted in two of his three career losses. The 33-year-old Mitchell is a submission specialist and won the first 11 fights of his career, nine times by submission, including wins over War Machine and Bobby Green. However, since coming to the UFC, he’s dropped two straight fights, decision losses to T.J. Waldburger and Paulo Thiago, and many fans were unaware he was still on the UFC roster when he replaced Marcelo Guimares on short notice in this bout. Mitchell also hasn’t fought since August 2011, and combined with taking the fight on short notice, it makes sense he comes in as the underdog despite his Octagon experience. Next up is a bantamweight bout between American Alex “Bruce Leeroy” CaAlex Caceresceres (7-5) and Japan’s Motonobu Tezuka (19-4-4), who is fighting in the UFC for the first time. Caceres opened as a -200 favorite with Tezuka a +160 underdog (click for latest MMA odds). Since dropping down to 135 pounds, the 24-year-old Caceres has won two out of three bouts against Cole Escovedo and Damacio Page, and he would have defeated Edwin Figueroa had referee Herb Dean not deducted two points for a groin shot. Caceres is a flashy kicker and is slick on the ground, and this is is sixth UFC fight, so it’s hard to see Tezuka having too many surprises for him. Tezuka took the fight on one week’s notice, replacing Kyung Ho Kang, and will have a tough time against Caceres on the feet, as “Bruce Leeroy” is a much better striker. However, the 25-year-old Tezuka does have a smothering top game, and although Caceres will threaten off his back, if Tezuka takes him down and holds him there for three rounds he could steal the judges’ decision, as 13 of his career victories have come via decision (and five more by submission). Tezuka has no notable career wins. Then it’s a middleweight bout between Japan’s Riki Fukuda (18-6) and American Tom DeBlass (7-1). Fukuda opened a solid-345 favorite with DeBlass a +265 underdog. Fukuda is one of the toughest outs in the UFC middleweight division, possessing a great chin, solid kickboxing, and decent wrestling. The 31-year-old American Kickboxing Academy product is only 1-2 in the UFC, but keep in mind the judges robbed him against Nick Ring at UFC 127. Fukuda, who holds a notable victory over Murilo “Ninja” Rua, is competitive in nearly all of his bouts. DeBlass, on the other hand, will be making his UFC middleweight debut. He has fought once in the Octagon, when he competed at light heavyweight and lost a majority decision to Cyrille Diabate at UFC on FUEL TV 2, suffering the first loss of his career in a fight he took on very short notice. The 30-year-old was then set to fight Nick Penner at UFC on FUEL TV 4, but Penner pulled out with an injury, so DeBlass decided to drop down to 185 with the extra time off. At middleweight, expect him to be very fast on the feet, but DeBlass’ key to victory is to get Fukuda to the ground, as he is a BJJ black belt under Ricardo Almeida, who has won numerous awards in the sport, so don’t sell him short when making your MMA picks. And finally, it’s a flyweight bout pitting Brazilian John Lineker (19-6) against Japan’s Yasuhiro Urushitani (19-5-6). Lineker opened as a slight -120 favorite with Urushitani at -110. The 22-year-old Lineker is coming off a “Fight of the Night” performance against Louis Gaudinot in his UFC debut, but he ended up losing by submission, snapping a 13-fight winning streak. He’s a very active fighter on his feet and is nicknamed “Hands of Stone” because he has eight knockout wins, which bodes well against Urushitani, who is coming off a TKO loss to Joseph Benavidez in his own UFC debut. The 36-year-old Urushitani has seen 23 of his 30 career fights go to the judges, so it’s likely he’ll try to drag this fight to deep waters and outpoint Lineker, who missed weight in his last bout and probably ran out of gas. Keep in mind though that the younger fighter often wins in the UFC, and Lineker is 14 years younger than Urushitani.

Written by Adam Martin.

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