One of the main card bouts at Bellator 129 is a three-round welterweight bout between Andre Santos and James Terry. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Santos is a -155 favorite (bet $155 to win $100) while Terry is a +135 underdog (bet $100 to win $135). MMA linesetter Nick Kalikas opened up Santos at -155 and Terry at +115, and there hasn’t been much betting action on this fight as the lines have tightened. This is a competitive fight but I understand why Santos is a slight betting favorite heading into it. Here’s why. Santos (36-9) is making his Bellator debut after a successful career so far fighting primarily in Brazil. The 33 year old has fought some of the better regional-level welterweights in Brazil, but his only “name” win is a decision over Ivan Jorge. Otherwise, he’s lost when he’s stepped up in competition against the likes of Wendell Oliveira, Sergio Moraes, and Hernani Perpetuo. He was once a top prospect and judging by his record I can understand why some people are high on him, but if you look close his record is padded. Plus, he’s been knocked out four times and has been submitted three times as well. Overall he’s a decent fighter with a very good ground game (22 career submission wins) and he could be someone to look out for in Bellator, but I’m not totally sold on Santos just yet. However, I do think he has some decent potential if he can clean his game up, and I believe Terry makes for a solid next test for him. Terry (14-7) was once a top prospect in Strikeforce, and was at one point 5-1 in Strikeforce before tailing off and finishing his run there with a 6-4 record, although to be fair to Terry his losses came against Bobby Green, Nah-Shon Burrell, Tarec Saffiedine and Caros Fodor. Since leaving Strikeforce, Terry is 3-2 with an 0-1 record in Bellator, a controversial split decision loss to Rick Reeves. The 33-year-old Terry recently bounced back with a win on the regional circuit, and former Strikeforce matchmaker Rich Chou brought him back to Bellator. Terry is an exciting fighter with eight career knockout wins. He has heavy strikes (he trains with Cung Le in San Jose, so it’s not surprising) and his knockout power has won him a lot of fights. He also has a solid wrestling base to back that up. However, his defensive grappling isn’t the best and he’s been submitted twice so far in his career. I like Terry and hope he does well in Bellator but his recent performances have left a lot to be desired, and that’s why he enters this fight against Santos as the dog despite having faced a higher level of competition in his career. A few years ago I was very high on Terry and saw a lot of potential for him in Strikeforce. A few years later, though, and I don’t necessarily feel the same way after he’s struggled in recent fights against a lower level of competition. With that being said, although Santos has been winning, he hasn’t fought the same level of competition that Terry has, and that’s what is making this a tough fight for me to pick. I’ll slightly lean towards Santos because I believe he has more momentum heading into this fight, but it wouldn’t shock me if he lost as this seems like somewhat of a let-down spot. My official pick will be Santos, but would I bet on this fight? No way. A classic case of a coin-flip Bellator fight, and this is not the kind of fight I’d feel confident to have my cash on, so I’ll just watch as a fan and recommend you do the same as well.