Gabe Killian’s Live Dogs for UFC 178

Manny GamburyanUFC 178 Date: September 27, 2014 Arena: MGM Grand Garden Arena City: Las Vegas, NV UFC 178 will be live on Pay Per View this Saturday at 10pm ET with a five-fight main card, with televised preliminary action kicking off at 8pm ET on FOX Sports 1. Interested in wagering on these plays, or any other plays for this fight card, you may do so at Several Bookmakerss. My live dogs for UFC 178 in Las Vegas are: Women’s Bantamweight bout: Amanda “The Lioness” Nunes (+245) vs Cat Zingano (-265) Gabe’s Thoughts: Zingano returns after an extended layoff to take on Nunes, who is currently riding a two-fight winning streak inside the Octagon. Nunes is the first female Brazilian to get her hand raised in the UFC, and she will be looking to do that for the third time against Zingano. I think Zingano is being tremendously over-valued in this match-up. She defeated Miesha Tate in her last outing, but that was due to a controversial TKO stoppage, and only came when Tate had started to gas, after beating Zingano for the first two rounds. Zingano did not look good for those first ten minutes against Tate; she was the superior striker heading into the fight, and ended up getting beat up on the feet until the third frame, where she finally took control after Tate faded. I think Nunes should be a slight favorite heading into this match-up, so I love her for a wager at the current underdog price of +245. I am picking her to upset Cat Zingano on Saturday night. Gabe’s Call: Nunes by Submission (rear naked choke, 3:01 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Amanda Nunes (+245) 4u to win 9.8u Lightweight bout: “The” James Krause (+340) vs Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal (-380) Gabe’s Thoughts: I agree that Masvidal should be the favorite in this lightweight scrap, but I think he is being over-valued at the current betting odds of -380. Krause is a legitimate opponent and unlike anybody else in the division. His style is unorthodox and unique, and he is not the easiest opponent to prepare for, so it does not make sense to me that Masvidal, who has displayed a shaky chin, is near 4-to-1 favorite over him heading into this bout. I am picking Masvidal to get his hand raised, most likely by decision, and favor him to do so, but I think Krause is capable of winning this fight by decision, submission or T/KO, so at the current underdog price of +340, I think there is enough value to warrant a wager. Gabe’s Call: Masvidal by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: James Krause (+340) 1.5u to win 5.1u Welterweight bout: Patrick “The Predator” Cote (+355) vs Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson (-400) Gabe’s Thoughts: Contrary to popular opinion, I think this fight is a real coin-flip, and even slightly favor Cote to pick up the win. The Canadian is currently taking his career more seriously than he ever has before and has recently begun to put real focus on his wrestling, which was in full display in his last outing against Kyle Noke, who he dominated on the mat for 15 minutes of action to pick up a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. I think he will fight smart here and look to implement that wrestling attack again. Thompson’s takedown defense may hold up, but I think Cote will be able to land enough of them, and to spend enough time pressuring Thompson against the cage to edge out rounds in the eyes of the judges. I believe this fight comes down to Cote’s fight IQ and how he goes about approaching his offense. He needs to not worry about Thompson’s unorthodox Karate kicks and concentrate on employing his game-plan. Experience is also on the side of the Canadian, and I think that may play to this advantage. It is worth noting that Thompson has lost the only other time he has stepped up against a true veteran of the sport, dropping a unanimous decision to Matt Brown. I could see this fight going either way, but at the current underdog odds of +350, I think it would be silly to not make a move on Cote. Gabe’s Call: Cote by Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Patrick Cote (+355) 2.55u to win 9.05u Bantamweight bout: Cody “The Renegade” Gibson (-200) vs Manny “The Anvil” Gamburyan (+185) Gabe’s Thoughts: Gamburyan is set to make his bantamweight debut, having teamed up with Mike Dolce to make the cut down. I have become a fan of Gibson’s, as he has impressed in both his Octagon appearances, even in his loss against Aljamain Sterling in his promotional debut. That said, I don’t think he should be favored heading into this contest, especially at the current juicy price of -200. The reason the public drove the line to such is a price is because Gibson is coming off a knockout of Johnny Bedford, and it is being said that Gamburyan is on a decline. I personally have to disagree with that, as I think he looked impressive in a losing effort to Nik Lentz in his last outing at 145-pounds. He lost the fight, but he was a huge underdog going into contest, and ended up making it a close battle. If he was able to be so competitive against Lentz, I think it makes sense that he is capable of defeating Gibson. That in mind, the current underdog price of +175 does not sound like a bad bet, at all. I could see this fight going either way, but I do think Gamburyan should be a slight favorite here, so I’ll take him as a near 2-to-1 dog. I should also note that I disagree with the popular opinion that Gibson is the superior striker heading into this match-up. I believe Gamburyan will in fact have the advantage on the feet, as he is the more technically sound striker. Gibson is the better brawler and has the better chin, so he could finish Gamburyan on the feet, especially considering that “The Anvil” does not have the best chin. However, if the Armenian finds success is keeping it technical on the feet, I feel he can outpoint “The Renegade” there, and if he is able to mix in takedowns or spend time pressuring Gibson against the cage, he will be able to comfortably seal rounds in the eyes of the judges. Gabe’s Call: Gamburyan by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Manny Gamburyan (+185) 2.65u to win 4.9u

Written by Gabe Killian

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