Gabe Killian’s Prop Plays for UFC Fight Night 52 in Japan

Myles-Jury-UFC-on-FOX-7UFC Fight Night 52 Date: September 20, 2014 Arena: Saitama Super Arena City: Saitama, Japan UFC Fight Night 52 will be live this Saturday (September 20th) morning from the Saitama Super Arena in Saitama, Japan. The event will produce an 12-fight card, including a six-fight main card that will be streaming live on UFC Fight Pass at 3am ET, with a preliminary card preceding it at 12:30am ET, also on UFC Fight Pass. If interested in wagering on these proposition plays, or any other plays for this fight card, these lines will be available to you at 5Dimes Sportsbooks. My prop plays UFC Fight Night 52 in Japan are: Heavyweight bout: Mark Hunt (-110) vs Roy Nelson (+100) Nelson by Submission (+800) 1u to win 8u Fight Won’t Start Round Four (-160) 1.6u to win 1u I really do believe that the number one most likely outcome to this heavyweight match-up is Roy Nelson winning via submission and ultimately earning his first submission victory since 2006. It’s easy to forget he is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt who regularly competes in Jiu-Jitsu tournaments because of all the knockouts he has been scoring. He pretty much abandoned his grappling and fell in love with his right hand, which he has used to put many of his opponents into a deep sleep with. Nelson should be wise enough to be aware that Hunt is legitimate threat to him on the feet, so he should not gamble and should instead engage his grappling, knowing full-well that he holds a massive edge in that department. I am expecting, or rather hoping that Nelson will take this fight to the mat, where it should only be a matter of time until he locks something up. That said, I would not be surprised to see Hunt survive on the mat, as he has been improving his submission defense. Though, it’s possible he did not spend much time working on his Jiu-Jitsu for this fight, as he is probably expecting another stand-up war. I am hoping Nelson surprises him, and so does my wallet. Lightweight bout: Myles Jury (-570) vs Takanori Gomi (+480) Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision (-130) 1.3u to win 1u Gomi Inside the Distance (+770) .1u to win .77u I expect Jury to dominate Gomi, ultimately submitting him. If he does not score the finish, I think he will cruise to a comfortable unanimous decision on the judges’ scorecards. I think the most likely outcome to this 155-pound scrap is Jury by Submission, but rather than playing a Jury prop, I am taking Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision with the hopes that Gomi will be the one ending the fight, as he is the fighter I am rooting for in this contest. My money is on this fight not making the full 15 minutes, but I am hoping it is “The Fireball Kid” who gets the finish, and in highlight-reel fashion. Flyweight bout: Jon delos Reyes (+510) vs Kyoji Horiguchi (-615) Reyes by Decision (+1200) .5u to win 6u Not Horiguchi Inside the Distance (-115) 1.15u to win 1u Everybody but me seems to be counting Reyes out. While I do pick Horiguchi to win the fight, I think Reyes has a better chance of upsetting him than most people think. People are expecting Horiguchi to run through him and finish him, but I think even if he loses, Reyes will manage to go the distance. No outcome to this match-up would surprise me, including Reyes winning a decision, so I think there is value in that prop at the current betting line of +1200 and I will be taking a small stab at it. Featherweight bout: Daniel Hooker (+150) vs Maximo Blanco (-160) Hooker by Decision (+440) 1u to win 4.4u I think there is a very good chance Hooker wins a decision here, and in my personal opinion, it is the most likely outcome to this featherweight match-up. +440 for what I think is the most likely outcome? Sure, thanks.

Written by Gabe Killian

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