Full UFC Fight Night 48 Betting Odds

004—006 FNM2014 Poster v2Sometimes UFC Fight Pass gives us events like UFC Fight Night 46 in Dublin, and sometimes… well, sometimes we get the upcoming UFC Fight Night 48 from Macau. That’s not to say there aren’t fights worth watching on the card, as the top two bouts — Michael Bisping versus Cung Le and Tyron Woodley against Dong Hyun Kim — are excellent. The rest of the card is just filled with some lower level talent. This shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the last card the UFC held in Macau was constructed in much the same manner, and the organization has made it clear that these events are targeted at the locales they’re held in rather than a more global audience. Hardcore fans will still be tuning in, but even they may struggle to get up at 6:30am for the likes of Royston Wee and Yao Zhikui… especially since there is a far superior card starting about 12 hours later. The betting lines for the two divisionally relevant bouts have been released at Several Bookmakers already. They see Bisping as a solid -325 favorite (bet $325 to win $100) with the comeback on Le at +265 (bet $100 to win $265), and Woodley a slight -140 favorite over the +120 Kim. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas added lines for the remaining bouts to Several Bookmakers today. Take a look: ——————– MAIN CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 9am ET) Michael Bisping -230 Cung Le +170 Tyron Woodley -135 Dong Hyun Kim -105 Brendan O’Reilly -165 Zhang Lipeng +125 TUF China Featherweight Final Yang Jianping -265 Ning Guangyou +185 ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 6:30am ET) Danny Mitchell -265 Wang Sai +185 Alberto Mina -185 Shinsho Anzai +145 Yuta Sasaki -140 Roland Delorme +100 Colby Covington -305 Wang Anying +225 Royston Wee -265 Yao Zhuikui +185 Milana Dudieva -150 Elizabeth Phillips +110 ——————– Brad’s “Analysis”: There’s a reason I put the word analysis in quotation marks for this card, and that’s because aside from the top two fights, there are so many unknowns on this card. Even as someone who bet on Royston Wee in his UFC debut, most of these fights are nearly impossible to bet. Zhang Lipeng won a very close decision to capture the TUF China welterweight tournament, while Brendan O’Reilly was eliminated in the very first fight of TUF Nations, as a completely undersized welterweight. Even though this bout is being contested at lightweight that size difference could play a significant difference here as well. At the end of the day however, I can’t help but feel O’Reilly is a bit more skilled and should come away with the victory. TUF China was simply that bad from a talent perspective. The public is heavily favoring Jianping Yang to become the featherweight winner of TUF China, but with both him and Guangyou Ning only having one professional fight since 2010, I find it much harder to separate the two. Yang has the more impressive resume and showed more overall skill on the show, but Ning has faced the better actual competition in his career, which could have him more prepared for this stage. This is a bout that I’d just prefer to stay away from entirely as my read on it is worse than bad. Danny Mitchell looked downright bad in his UFC debut, as he offered nothing against Igor Araujo. Wang Sai arguably won his TUF China finale bout against Lipeng Zhang. Despite those differing debuts, there is a large gap between Araujo and Zhang, so it’s hard not to favor Mitchell here. Sai is primarily a grappler, and Mitchell is simply better in that area. Perhaps Sai can get a KO on Mitchell’s questionable chin, or control him for 15 minutes like Araujo, but that’s difficult to really see happening given what we’ve seen out of him so far. Once upon a time, Ryo Kawamura was a decent prospect in Japan, so Shinsho Anzai having a TKO win over him is pretty impressive. I doubt that will have much bearing on this bout however, as Alberto Mina is primarily a grappler and is light years ahead of Anzai in that department. Mina isn’t bad on the feet either, and can likely make things competitive there as well, but it’s the ground advantage that gives him the edge in my eyes and what makes him a favorite here. Anzai seems powerful, and is a bit too unknown for me to feel comfortable betting against him however. Roland Delorme can grapple. Yuta Sasaki can grapple. This is actually a decent fight tucked away on this card and could be fun as long as they actually engage in grappling. The striking could be pretty ugly, but Delorme probably has an edge if it stays standing. Delorme should be able to control the grappling exchanges as well, but he tends to fade in fights while Sasaki has decent cardio. Coupled with the fight being much closer to home for Sasaki, and that could make a difference. I favor Delorme, because traditionally its taken better wrestlers than Sasaki to defeat him, but it’s hard to be too confident. It seems easy to just suggest fading the Chinese fighters on this card, but looking at all these matchups, you kind of have to. Anying Wang got as good a matchup as he could hope for in his UFC debut against Albert Cheng and he took advantage. Against Colby Covington he’s going to be facing someone who can actually grapple, and that should be his downfall. Covington isn’t an elite prospect or anything, but he’s serviceable and Wang is just so unproven at this point that you have to give the edge to the ATT fighter. As I mentioned earlier, I was one of the degenerates who actually had money on Royston Wee’s UFC debut. That was basically just a fade of Dave Galera based on the fact that there was some footage available of him. It’s hard to make the same assumption against Zhuikui Yao, since his fight time amounts to about 37 seconds. I think Wee can get takedowns and do nothing from top position to win another decision, but I’m not willing to put money on it this time around. What people are going to forget about Elizabeth Phillips’ UFC debut is that she took the fight on less than two weeks notice, and was doing very well in the first round against Valerie Letourneau. With a full camp she should have her cardio in check, and I think that will allow her to keep this fight on the feet to beat Milana Dudieva. Dudieva simply doesn’t offer much in the striking department. However, if this does go to the ground Phillips could be in trouble, as Dudieva is skilled and very aggressive on the mat. Phillips’ preparations with fighters like Sam Sicilia and Michael Chiesa should have her ready for the takedown and submission threat though.

Written by Brad Taschuk

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