Gabe Killian’s Prop Plays for UFC Fight Night 47

Ovince St. Preux 2UFC Fight Night 47 Date: August 16, 2014 Arena: Cross Insurance Center City: Bangor, Maine UFC Fight Night 47 will be live from Bangor, Maine for the first time in promotion history this Saturday night (Aug. 16, 2014) at 10pm ET on FOX Sports 1 with a six-fight main card which will be headlined by a five round welterweight contest between Ovince St. Preux and Ryan Bader. The winner will likely take on Anthony “Rumble” Johnson in his next outing. Preceding the main card will be a four-fight preliminary card starting at 8pm ET on FOX Sports 2. If interested in wagering on these props, or any other plays for this fight card, you may do so at Several Bookmakerss. My prop plays UFC Fight Night 47 in Maine are: Light Heavyweight bout: Ovince St. Preux (+145) vs Ryan Bader (-165) OSP by Submission (+890) .5 to win 4.45u I think there is very good value in this prop, as I feel the chances of OSP submitting Bader are much greater than the line of +890 suggests. The Strikeforce veteran has a solid submission game and it is constantly improving. He is the only light heavyweight who owns a submission victory via Von Flue choke inside the Octagon. This is a fight I could see playing out a number of ways, but a finish by OSP is in my opinion, a likely outcome. While I think a knockout is more likely than a submission, I don’t think the OSP by KO prop offers any value at +240, while we’re getting a ton of value with the submission line at +890. I can’t pass this one up; it’s definitely worth a little play. Welterweight bout: Alan Jouban (+120) vs Seth Baczynski (-140) Baczynski by Decision (+144) 1u to win 1.44u Fight Goes to Decision (-165) 1.65u to win 1u Jouban enjoys a two-fight winning streak as he gets set to make his promotional debut inside the Octagon. He takes on Baczynski, who is coming off a ‘Fight of the Night” bonus-winning bout against Thiago Alves. “The Polish Pistola” came out on the losing end of that one, but he impressed and continued to win over many fans. I think this should be a great fight and feel that the most likely outcome is Baczynski doing enough for at least two out of three rounds to take home a decision victory on the judges’ scorecards; likely unanimous. Jouban is certainly a gamer and no easy out, so I think this is going to be a tough fight for both parties, and a very entertaining one for fight fans; Baczynski could very well take home a second consecutive ‘Fight of the Night’ bonus after this one. I favor this fight to hit the judges’ scorecards, and when it does get there, I favor “The Polish Pistola” to get the nod. Flyweight bout: Jussier Formiga (+260) vs Zach Makovsky (-320) Formiga Inside the Distance (+470) .5u to win 2.35u This 125-pound scrap will be headlining the UFC Fight Night 47 preliminary card on FOX Sports 2 and is one I am looking forward to. While I think the most likely outcome to this match-up is Makovsky taking home a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards, I think there is a decent chance that Formiga taps him. At the current line of +470, I definitely think there is value in this prop; certainly enough to warrant this little play. Formiga is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt who owns 50% of his professional mixed martial arts career victories by way of submission and is a master at taking his opponents’ backs. Makovsky on the other hand has dropped three of his four pro victories by way of tapout, so if this fight hits the mat, he could potentially be in a world of trouble; though his submission defense could have improved since he was last submitted by Eduardo Dantas nearly two and a half yeas ago.

Written by Gabe Killian

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