Gabe Killian’s Prop Plays for UFC 174

Rory MacDonald JabUFC 174 Date: June 14, 2014 Arena: Rogers Arena City: Vancouver, B.C., Canada UFC 174 will be live from the Rogers Arena in Vancouver, B.C., Canada with an 11-fight card, including an action-packed five-five main card that will kick off at 10pm ET, with preliminary action getting going at 5pm ET on FOX Sports 1. If interested in wagering on the props suggested in this article, or any other props or wagers for this card, you may do so at Several Bookmakerss. My prop plays for UFC 174 are: Lightweight bout: Rory MacDonald (-110) vs Tyron Woodley (+100) MacDonald by Submission (+780) .25u to win 1.95u MacDonald by Decision (+177) 1u to win 1.77u I think MacDonald is very motivated to win this fight, and that has not always been true with the Canadian. If he shows up mentally ready, which I expect him to, I think the only way he loses this fight is by getting caught with Woodley’s power punches and getting finished; or at least getting hurt badly enough to sway the round(s) in the judges’ favor. That said, I am counting on him to use his high fight IQ and fight a smart fight. One thing worth noting is MacDonald’s under-rated Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game. I think if these two engage in grappling exchanges, he will have a decent chance at submitting Woodley, who is by no means an easy opponent to submit. Though a Woodley T/KO and MacDonald submission are, in my opinion, realistic outcomes to this match-up, I feel these two will make it all the way to the judges’ scorecards more often than not. When it’s all said and done, I see the referee raising MacDonald’s hand as Bruce Buffer announces his name. I expect either a decision or a surprise submission, but I think the hometown kid will come through for the Canadian crowd. For a full write-up for this fight, I refer you to my article for the bout. Heavyweight bout: Andrei Arlovski (+145) vs Brendan Schaub (-155) Schaub by Decision (+253) 1u to win 2.53u These heavyweights have spent time training together years ago during Schaub’s stint at Jackson-Winklejohn MMA, where Arlovski continues to train out of. I have no doubt his conditioning will be on point of this bout, and the same goes for Schaub, who has incredible cardio; not just for a heavyweight, but for anybody. As long as Schaub is able to avoid Arlovski’s power shots, I think he will manage to score more points by being the quicker fighter, ultimately getting his hand raised as Bruce Buffer announces the judges’ scorecards. Light heavyweight bout: Ovince St. Preux (-155) vs Ryan Jimmo (+145) OSP by Decision (+170) 1u to win 1.7u Fight Goes to Decision (-155) 1.55u to win 1u While both of these fighters are great finishers, they are also both very tough and hard to put away. I think more often than not, this one will play out for all three rounds for a judges’ decision. For a full write-up on this main event bout, please check out my fight article. Welterweight bout: Daniel Sarafian (-435) vs Kiichi Kunimoto (+385) Sarafian Inside the Distance (+116) 1u to win 1.16u Sarafian Wins Fastest KO (+1000) .5u to win 5u Sarafian Wins Fastest Submission (+1100) .5u to win 5.5u To put it simply, I think there is a good chance Sarafian hurts and finishes Kunimoto early in this fight. This is his first fight at 170-pounds, so as long as he does not fight overly conservative to reserve his gas tank, I feel he should be able to get the victory via stoppage, likely within 1.5 rounds. I was also eyeing Sarafian Wins in Round One for a bet, but it was at +300 and I did not see value in that line. It is currently at +275, so I definitely won’t be playing it, even though I do expect and hope for a first round finish for the Brazilian-Armenian. Women’s Bantamweight bout: Elizabeth Phillips (+100) vs Valerie Letourneau (-110) Phillips Inside the Distance (+325) .6u to win 1.95u Phillips Wins in Round One (+600) .2 to win 1.2 Phillips -3.5 (+160) .75u to win 1.2u Phillips is the bigger fighter. She has a size advantage over Letourneau, as well as advantages in grappling and power. I think she may be able to stop Letourneau on the feet with power shots, even though Letourneau is the superior striker. That is a possible outcome, in my opinion, though I think there is a better chance she takes Letourneau down and earns a stoppage via ground and pound, or possible secures a submission on the mat, as she will also have the edge in Jiu-Jitsu over the Canadian.

Written by Gabe Killian

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UFC 174 Fight Breakdown: Rory MacDonald (-118) vs. Tyron Woodley (+108)