Iuri Alcantara vs Vaughan Lee – UFC Fight Night 41 Statistical Analysis and Fight Pick

UFC Fight Night 41 May 31, 2014 Bantamweight Matchup: Iuri Alcantara vs Vaughan Lee By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics   Big Picture:  On the Fight Pass Prelims from UFC Fight Night 41 in Berlin, Bantamweights Iuri Alcantara and Vaughan Lee are set to clash. Sigh…this will be my first German UFC event that I’ll miss in person. I’ll just say that thanks to the good people at Ranger Up and their connections around the globe, the first two were epic trips. Perhaps I’m too old now to be having that much fun. So to my friends enjoying Berlin in the summertime this weekend, Prosit! Both fighters here are competing a long way from home in a division that has just been shaken up severely with TJ Dillashaw’s seizing of the Bantamweight title. But the winner here is still relevant to the future title picture. Alcantara is currently ranked 7th in the division and will be the heavy favorite at -380, with Lee the underdog at +290. That’s a fairly steep line, so let’s take a look at how they matchup to see if it’s justified.   Summary Stats:

Uber Tape Lee-Alcantara To see more Uber Tales of the Tape for this UFC fight card, check out MMA Oddsbreaker Premium.

  Tale of Tape Matchup: The Tale of Tape is reveals factors favoring the Brazilian, who will have a five-inch reach advantage and also a Southpaw advantage. In fact, Lee’s reach is much better suited to competing at Flyweight, and it will be interesting to see if he ends up there should he lose. Bother fighters are north of 30 years old, but the two-year age difference won’t preclude us from saying that Alcantara has the clear advantage along the Tale of the Tape.   Striking Matchup: Once factoring in the size discrepancy, it looks like Alcantara will have some big advantages in the standup game. Historically, he’s very accurate with his jab and operates at an extremely high pace, generally outworking his opponents by more than 85%. That’s a sign of a guy who knows how to use his reach. He does tend to eat more punches than average, but given Lee’s low power striking accuracy and short reach, this may not be a problem. The one area where Lee pops on the statline is with his Knockdown Rate, although keep in mind the sample size is low here. Essentially, he’s rarely landed any clean shots, but he scored one knockdown among the few that he did land. There’s a wildcard there, but not one to bank on. The combination of anthropometrics and Alcantara’s stylistic tendency to make good use of his reach should mean that he’ll get the better of Lee on the feet for as long as the fight stays there. Which may not be long.   Grappling Matchup: The first fighter to get top control on the mat will probably be Alcantara. The BJJ black belt should be aware that most of Lee’s losses in the UFC have come by way of submission. Alcantara is eight for nine in his takedown attempts making for a ridiculous success rate, despite limited sample size. Lee has faced plenty of takedown attempts from opponents who were likely trying to exploit him on the mat, and his takedown defense is just above average against that onslought. I’m not sure that’s enough here to stave off the attack of Alcantara. Once on the mat, Lee has been put on his back and controlled for the overwhelming majority of his time there. Alcantara excels in advancing position, averaging 2.7 advances per takedown. Should the fight end up on the ground, again Alcantara will have some big advantages and also the submission arsenal to mount a varied attack.   Reed’s Pick: Alcantara by Submission (click for latest MMA odds)   Reed’s Recommended Play:  Given the steep odds, what we really want to see in order to justify a favorite is a combination of advantages on the Tale of the Tape, plus some key advantages in both striking and grappling. If there’s no clear holes in the game, and the opponent doesn’t have some special weapon (a notorious submission technique, or dynamite power), then we should feel safer laying the juice on the favorite. And that’s what we see here. Alcantara’s size will accentuate the striking advantages and mitigate risk, while his grappling offers a serious threat for a finish. You can play him straight up, or consider throwing him into a parlay with another clear favorite or round robin. The Under of 2.5 rounds at -135 is a close call. Normally, Bantamweights are lucky if they finish even close to half of their fights, so this line suggests more awareness of finishing potential. The most likely finish in this fight is by Alcantara earning a submission, but there’s also a wildcard of Vaughan Lee’s power. Vaughan has lost most of his fights inside the distance, and Alcantara has won most of his in short order. With both men on the wrong side of age 30, these factors all support an Under play on a line that isn’t too steep. “Fightnomics” the book is now available on Amazon!  Follow along on Twitter for the latest UFC stats and MMA analysis.

Written by Reed Kuhn

Leave a Reply

UFC Fight Night 41’s Mark Munoz: ‘Gegard Mousasi has always had trouble with wrestlers’

UFC Fight Night 41’s Gegard Mousasi: ‘I will get more chances to finish vs Mark Munoz’