UFC 153 Opening Odds: Light Heavyweights Phil Davis (-350) vs. Wagner Prado (+270)

Phil DavisUFC 153: October 13, 2012 HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil UFC Light Heavyweight Contender Phil Davis (-350) Profile: One of the most decorated grapplers in the UFC, Phil Davis (9-1, 1 No-Contest) has taken a phenomenal Division I wrestling career at Penn State – placing fifth nationally in 2007 and winning the NCAA title in 2008 – and made a successful transition to MMA. After only four pro fights, the 27-year-old Pennsylvania native made the move to the UFC and defeated Brian Stann so soundly in his debut at UFC 109 that Stann moved down a weight class to middleweight. Wins over quality opponenets such as Alexander Gustafsson, Tim Boetsch and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira followed, giving Davis a shot at former light heavyweight champion Rashad Evans, who dominated him at UFC on FOX 2. UFC Light Heavyweight Contender Wagner Prado (+270) Profile: Profile: Wagner Prado (8-0, 1 NC) made his UFC debut at UFC on FOX 4 against fellow light heavyweight contender Davis in a suddenly shallow division. That fight ended with a N0-Contest, as a Davis eye poke prevented Prado from continuing. With a previously unbeaten 8-0 record, including seven knockouts to his name along the Brazilian independent circuit, the 25 year-old Brazilian has heavy hands and a developing ground game. Training out of Team Nogueira, Prado seems battle-tested and ready to make an impact in the UFC. Opening UFC 153 Odds Analysis: MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas has made Davis a big -350 favorite (bet $350 to win $100) against Prado, who opened as a solid +270 underdog (bet $100 to win $270) according to the MMA odds. However, what previously looked like a massive mismatch on paper in favor of Davis turned out to be a much closer battle when he actually faced Prado the first time around. Davis was truly tested for the second consecutive bout coming off his loss to Evans, and many MMA bettors thought he was in big trouble against Prado before the eye poke ended the fight. An adjustment from the original line has been made to reflect Prado’s earlier showing, as Davis was originally a monster fave at -675 compared to +475 for his opponent. Prado has already proven he can hang with Davis, who must be much more careful in the rematch.

Written by MMA OddsBreaker

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