UFC Fight Night 29 Bet: Raphael Assuncao (+200) vs TJ Dillashaw (-240)

T.J. DillashawUFC Fight Night 29 Date: October 9, 2013 Arena: Jose Correa Arena City: Barueri, Sao Paulo, Brazil Bantamweight bout: Raphael Assuncao (+200) vs TJ Dillashaw (-240) Fight Breakdown: Kicking things off for the UFC Fight Night 29 main card is a bantamweight scrap between two bright stars in the division as Brazilian veteran Raphael Assunacao takes on Team Alpha Male product TJ Dillashaw. Assuncao is the underdog in this bout at +200 ($100 to win $200), with Dillashaw being the favorite at -240 ($240 to win $100) at Several Bookmakerss. TJ DILLASHAW (8-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC) iscurrently riding a very impressive four-fight win streak, following his first and only career loss to current flyweight Jon Dodson in his Octagon debut in the TUF 14 finale. He has been incredibly dominant coming off that loss, as he manhandled Walel Watson in a fight two judges scored 30-25 and one scored 30-26, then went on to submit Vaughan Lee with a neck-crank in his next match-up. After that, he knocked out Isseu Tamura and followed that with another knockout over Brazilian prospect and TUF: Brazil season one veteran Hugo Viana, handing him the first loss of his professional mixed martial arts career. The two consecutive knockouts reflects the improvement in Dillashaw’s striking game and the work he’s put in with new striking/head coach at Team Alpha Male, Duane “Bang” Ludwig has paid off. Dillashaw is a well-rounded fighter who excels at everything. Not only is he good in every area, he is great in every area. His all-around skills are ever-improving. He is talented both on the feet and on the mat, as he is an excellent wrestler and has solid submissions. He is very dangerous with his chokes, especially his guillotine. The Team Alpha Male product’s conditioning is top notch, he will without-a-doubt be able to go all-out for a full 15 minutes of action. RAPHAEL ASSUNCAO (19-4 MMA, 4-1 UFC) rides an impressive four fight win streak in his own right, as he comes off decision victories over Mike Easton and Jonny Eduardo as well as finishes of Issei Tamura and Vaughan Lee, two opponents who were also finished by Dillashaw. After a successful run at both lightweight and featherweight, Assuncao has found a new home at bantamweight, where he is currently undefeated with the aforementioned four wins. He is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and is well-versed in the submission game, both offensively and defensively. Nine of his 19 career victories come by way of submission, so he knows how to capitalize on opportunities in order to get the tap. Assuncao is skilled in the Brazilian martial art of Capoeira and you can tell in his footwork. He moves really well inside the cage and is not easy to cut off. He has solid boxing skills and his striking arsenal keeps growing and improving. Much like Dillashaw, Assuncao gets better and better every fight. He generally has good conditioning but will not have that advantage heading into this match-up. Fight Prediction: This is a very close fight on paper and Dillashaw should not be such a big favorite, but that’s just on paper. When you really break it down, Dillashaw could take Assuncao down, regardless of Assuncao’s incredible takedown defense. He has solid submission defense, so he won’t be at risk of getting submitted by the Brazilian. That said, I don’t believe he will try to make this a wrestling match. Dillashaw is in love with his hands, so I think he will be looking to trade with Assuncao and put him away, and that’s what I see happening. Gabe’s Pick: TJ Dillashaw by KO (uppercut, 4:01 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: TJ Dillashaw -240 and Dillashaw ITD +145, keep an eye out for the TKO/KO prop, as well.

Written by Gabe Killian

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