On the main card of UFC 274, a lightweight bout between Michael Chandler and Tony Ferguson goes down. The card takes place on Saturday, May 7 in Phoenix, Arizona.
UFC 274 Opening Odds:
Michael Chandler -155
Tony Ferguson +135
Current UFC 274 Odds (April 18):
Michael Chandler -400
Tony Ferguson +300
Chandler and Ferguson’s recent fights
Michael Chandler (22-7) is on a two-fight losing streak as he’s coming off a decision loss to Justin Gaethje in November which was the Fight of the Year and one of the best fights of all-time. Prior to that, he suffered a TKO loss to Charles Oliveira for the lightweight title after having a 10-8 round in the first. In his UFC debut, he scored a first-round TKO over Dan Hooker after ending his Bellator reign with a KO win over Benson Henderson. The former Bellator lightweight champion holds notable wins over Brent Primus, Patricky Pitbull, Eddie Alvarez, and Derek Campos among others.
Tony Ferguson (25-6) is on a three-fight losing streak and last fought last May as he suffered a decision loss to Beneil Dariush. Prior to that, he suffered a decision loss to Charles Oliveira and suffered a TKO loss to Justin Gaethje for the interim lightweight title. In all three fights, Ferguson was dominated but prior to the setbacks, he was on a 12-fight win streak with notable wins over Kevin Lee for the interim title, Rafael dos Anjos, Anthony Pettis, Donald Cerrone, Edson Barboza, and Josh Thomson among others.
Are the odds surprising?
The opening odds were a surprise as I thought Chandler would open as a much bigger favortie and the sharps tended to agree as the odds were steamed right away. Ferguson has not looked like himself and in his last couple fights while Chandler has looked impressive in the UFC despite being 1-2. He nearly KO’d Oliveira and had a competitive war with Gaethje. Along with that, Chandler has a solid wrestling base and we have seen Ferguson struggle with grapplers and getting controlled in his last two fights.
How might the odds change?
As we have already seen, the odds have gotten steamed and now Chandler is at that -400 which does seem a bit too high. Chandler is not invincible and his chin is a concern, however, Ferguson isn’t known for the one punch power.
Ultimately, Chandler will still be a sizeable favorite by the time these two fight, but I do think you will see money come in on Ferguson. He still is a big name and has a big following and many will see the +300 and take a shot at him which may cause the line to move down to +275 to +250 for Ferguson by the time they step into the Octagon.