Big Marley’s UFC Fight Night 138 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %



Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts

Knockdown +10 Pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses

1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Canada. DraftKings has lowered their contest sizes quite a bit for this card, but there is still money to be won. The main contest this week is a $10 entry that pays $15k to first place. That is the main GPP I will be chasing this weekend. I will also play the 3-entry max and single entry GPPs as well.  Other than that, I will mainly be playing cash games trying to build the bankroll for the PPV next weekend. With that said, here are a few plays I like this week as well as my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Main event STACK

I like to stack the main event in cash games because we don’t need to get 6 wins to win a 50/50 and we get 5 possible rounds of combined points. You only need to beat half of the field in these cash games, so we can afford the loss. It usually takes about ~350 points to cash in these cash games and if we stack the main event we are basically guaranteed a win and 100+ points. Our goal is not to get 6 wins in these games. If you think you are going to get 6 wins in your lineup and you are real confident about it, just parlay that or put it in a GPP. It will give you a way better pay out. This is a different game and the goal in cash games is to have a high floor and let everyone else make the mistakes. Let’s take the guaranteed win between Volkan Oezdemir and Anthony Smith and the 100+ points that will come with it. The Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision is currently lined at -925 so that tells me there is a good chance we get over 100 total points between the two. Let’s lock in that win, then find 3 others you feel good about in your other 4 spots.

GPP play of the week – Marcelo Golm ($7,400)

I think Marcelo Golm is a great GPP play this week. He is the underdog, but the betting line is getting closer and the DK prices will be staying the same. Even though Bhullar is the favorite here, his ITD line is +389 compared to Golm’s +218. Every round will be starting on the feet and Golm will have chances to KO Bhullar. If you can get a KO win at this $7.4k price-tag, then you could have a shot at that $15k top prize.

Underdog play of the week – Talita Bernardo ($7,500)

I think Talita has a good chance of pulling the upset this weekend. This is not the most skilled fight all around, but Talita has a clear path to victory in my opinion. Moras has shown to have weak takedown defense and she really just relies on getting the armbar. Talita is going to take this fight to the ground, and she is a black belt in BJJ. I think if she can avoid the armbar then she is going to win this fight with top control, if not a submission of her own. I don’t think she has 100+ point upside here, but at $7.5k we don’t really need that. If she can get 10x and score 75 points in a win, I will take it.

Fade of the week – Ed Herman ($7,300)

Ed Herman is one fighter that will not make a single lineup of mine. I don’t care for this fight in general, but I am more interested in Villante than I am with a 38-year-old Ed Herman. I think this is going to be the last time we see Herman in the UFC and I think this could be the most boring fight on the card. Another reason I don’t like Herman here is because you are paying an extra $100. Every fight should add up to a combined $16,200 salary between the two fighters. With Villante at $9k, we should be getting Herman at $7.2k here. What’s up with that, DraftKings?

If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with analysis on every fight, my personal strategies & recommendations, and my pick prediction for every fight then you can find that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:

Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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