UFC Fight Night 121: Werdum vs. Tybura
Date: November 18
Arena: Qudos Bank Arena
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is heading to Sydney, Australia for the fifth time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 121: Werdum vs. Tybura. The 13-fight card is scheduled to kick off with preliminary action at 6:30 p.m. ET on UFC Fight Pass, with the prelims continuing at 8 p.m. on FOX Sports 1 and the main card getting underway on the same channel at 10 p.m. If interested in wagering on any bouts for these fight cards, all betting lines are made available at Several Bookmakers.
Here are my plays…
Women’s Flyweight bout: Bec Rawlings (-155) vs. Jessica Rose-Clark (+135)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Rose-Clark is making her UFC debut in this contest against Rawlings, who is moving up to 125-pounds for the first time in her professional mixed martial arts career. I think Rawlings should be a -130 betting favorite in this contest, so I see no value in her at her current offering price tag of -155, nor do I think there is enough value with Rose-Clark as a dog to make the juice worth the squeeze. As far as a straight play goes, I am going to have to say nah-uh; however, I like the Total of Over 2.5 rounds in this bout, which is currently at -250. That is a line I think should be at least -300, so I think it is worth playing; either straight or as part of a parlay.
Gabe’s Call: Rawlings by Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 2.5 rounds (-250)
Lightweight bout: Frank Camacho (-125) vs. Damien Brown (+105)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Both 155-pounders are capable of finishing fights, but I expect this to be a striking battle that goes the distance. It should, more often than not, anyway. Keeping in mind that Brown is coming off a first round knockout loss at the hands of Vinc Pichel, I think he is generally durable when it comes to taking punishment. Camacho is dropping down to his natural weight class of 155 pounds after dropping a unanimous decision to Li Jingliang at welterweight in his promotional debut. I more or less agree with the betting odds here, so I see no value in either fighter for a wager. That said, I do think the total of over 2.5 rounds at +120 holds great value, as I think that line should be -180.
Gabe’s Call: Brown by Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-29)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 2.5 rounds (+120)