UFC on FUEL TV 10 Picks: Fabricio Werdum (-320) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (+260)

Antonio-Nogueira UFC on FUEL TV 10 Ginasio Paulo Sarasate Saturday, June 8, 2013 Heavyweight bout: Fabricio Werdum (-320) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (+260) Fight Breakdown: The main event of UFC on FUEL TV 10 is a five-round heavyweight bout between TUF Brazil 2 coaches Fabricio Werdum and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Werdum is a -320 favorite (bet $320 to win $100), while Nogueira is a +260 underdog (bet $100 to win $260) at Several Bookmakers. Werdum (16-5-1) returned to the UFC last year after a stint in Strikeforce and picked up two wins over Roy Nelson and Mike Russow. The 35-year-old Brazilian was the first man to legitimately stop Fedor Emelianenko when he submitted him back in June of 2010 but since then he hasn’t been on a regular schedule and has fought only three times in the last three years which is sad because he is definitely one of the most talented heavyweight fighters on the planet. Werdum is as slick as it comes on the ground and his standup is much improved, but he’s definitely got some chin issues as he’s been knocked down and knocked out on multiple occasions. Nogueira (34-7-1, 1 NC) is one of the all-time legendary heavyweights of MMA and seems to have turned back the clock as despite his age of 37, he’s been defeating guys younger than him. Sure, his chin isn’t iron like it used to be and he’s slower these days, but he still possess extremely good boxing skills and major power, as well as a BJJ black belt that he’s used to get him out of trouble many times in his career. Nogueira has already fought Werdum back in PRIDE and defeated him by decision and if he can replicate that gameplan he definitely has a chance to pull off the upset. It makes sense that Nogueira is the underdog in this fight but at the odds it’s hard not to take a look at him for a bet because it’s a fight he can most definitely win. Fight Prediction: This is an interesting matchup because it could take place in the standup or on the ground. Because these two respect each other’s ground games so much, though, I do think the fight will stay standing. Although both fighters might be tentative at first, I expect the action to start picking up in the second round. I think Nogueira has the better boxing and although Werdum’s muay Thai attack has looked vicious in his last few fights I do think Nogueira has what it takes to land a bomb on Werdum’s chin and put his lights out. And I’m going to go out on a limb and say the ageless warrior comes through with an upset win once again. Adam’s Pick: Nogueira via T/KO (click for latest MMA odds) Adam’s Recommended Play: This is a close fight to pick, so at +260 I’m going to take the plus money and say that Nogueira wins. I believe he has what it takes to knock Werdum out on the feet, but if the respect level is high between these two heavyweights it’s possible the fight goes to decision. This isn’t one of my more confident dog picks of the year but I like the value on Nogueira so I would recommend a small play on Nogueria’s moneyline of +260 and, if you want, a smaller stab at Nogueira wins inside the distance, as that currently pays out at +490.

Written by Adam Martin.

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Fabricio Werdum vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira – UFC on FUEL TV 10 Statistical Analysis and Pick

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