UFC Fight Night 106 Play: Kevin Lee (-160) vs Francisco Trinaldo (+140)

Marion ReneauUFC Fight Night 106: Belfort vs. Gastelum Date: March 11, 2016 Arena: Quicken Loans Arena City: Fortaleza, Brazil Lightweight bout: Kevin Lee (-160) vs Francisco Trinaldo (+140) Fight Breakdown: The featured bout for the UFC Fight Night 106 prelims on FOX Sports 1 will be a lightweight contest between “The Motown Phenom” Kevin Lee and Francisco “Masaranduba” Trunaldo, with Lee being a -160 ($160 to win $100) betting favorite heading into the contest, and Trinaldo being a +140 ($100 to win $140) underdog at Several Bookmakerss. “The MoTown Phenom” Kevin Lee (14-2 MMA, 7-2 UFC) is coming off a second round rear-naked choke technical submission of Magomed Mustafaev and now enjoys a three fight winning streak inside the Octagon, including a first round TKO of Jake Matthews and a unanimous decision win over The Ultimate Fighter 7 winner Efrain Escudero. “The Motown Phenom” is a talented wrestler who is quite effective with both the single and double-leg takedowns. He makes excellent transitions on the mat, doing a great job advancing from position to position. Lee is a decent boxer who is light on his feet. He has a solid lead jab, a nice uppercut and throws a heavy overhand right. He has a good high kick, and also works kicks to the body really well. That said, Lee mainly uses his striking to set up his takedowns. He likes to get his opponents up against the cage, where he does damage with his knees, and when he decides to take the fight down to the mat, he employs a solid ground and pound attack. The 24-year old has decent striking defense, good submission defense and great takedown defense. He works a great front choke, which he has finished a couple of his recent opponents with outside of the UFC. Lee is well-conditioned, durable fighter who generally does a good job of listening to his coaches when inside the cage. I expect him to have enough in the tank for a full three rounds of action against Trinaldo, if necessary. Francisco “Masaranduba” Trinaldo (21-4 MMA, 11-3 UFC) last saw action at UFC Fight Night 95 nearly half a year ago, where he scored a third round TKO (doctor stoppage) win over Paul Felder, making it seven straight victories for himself inside the Octagon, and he will be looking to extend it to an incredible eight against Lee in his native Brazil this Saturday night. The Brazilian is a very strong and powerful fighter who possesses a great chin and is capable of taking a lot of punishment – as he has not once been knocked out in his professional mixed martial arts career. Trinaldo works powerful takedowns, and implements brutal ground and pound when finding himself in top position on the mat. He is well-versed in the grappling department and owns a solid Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game, being a brown belt under (current UFC welterweight) Sergio Moraes. The 38-year old is capable of finishing fights with both strikes and submissions, as seven of his fourteen career victories come by way of T/KO and another five by tapout. His conditioning used to be a concern but he has appeared to have made improvements in that department, so I expect he will be ready for a hard 15-minutes of action against Lee in this contest, should the judges at Octagon-side get to have a say in the outcome of this one. Gabe’s Call: Prazeres by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think I’ve bet on Trinaldo in his last four fights now, but I think his streak comes to an end on Saturday night when he takes on the beast known as Kevin Jesse Lee. Sound like a crazy redneck? Nope, a black dude from Detroit. Both 155-pounders are riding hot going into this one, but I think Lee is the one who continues to roll here. He has the grappling advantage, while Trinaldo has a general striking advantage, but I could see Lee giving the Brazilian some trouble on the feet, as well, considering he will be enjoying an advantage of eight reached in reach. On the feet, it’s a close one, but with a massive grappling advantage to Lee, I strongly favor him in this contest. I think he should be a -350 betting favorite here, so I really like him for a play at his current offering price of -160. Gabe’s Recommended Parlays: Kevin Lee (-160) All of my content and plays are free. Your support is greatly appreciated. Click Here to Make a Donation!

Written by Gabe Killian

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