If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
|Significant Strikes||+0.2 Pts|
|Control Time||+0.03 Pts/Second|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
|Quick Win Bonus||+25 Pts|
This weekend, we have a 15-fight PPV card in Arizona, and we are in the big cage. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $25 buy-in & $200k goes to 1st place with $750,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Andre Fialho $9,500
Fialho is my preferred play in all formats, and I do expect 100+ points here with an early knockout. He is -180 ITD but his round 1 odds aren’t out yet. I expect it to be around even money though. If he doesn’t get an early KO, then he won’t wrestle or strike at a high enough rate to pay off this price tag, but he is still fine for cash games, and I think he is safer than the other $9k plays. He isn’t a must have play if you like someone else in his salary range more for cash, but he is probably my personal go-to in the top range.
GPP fight of the week – Charles Oliveira $8,500 vs Justin Gaethje $7,700
This is a 100% all-in fight for me and the easy stack in cash play. I would rather stack it in a GPP than fade it as well. Whoever you are picking is who you should be heavier on but for me it will be Oliveira. I will go heavier with my hand builds so I could see it being 75/25 with a limited number of lineups. With 150 lineups then I probably go closer to 65/35. I expect a KO from Gaethje if he wins and he has the highest ceiling on the slate for underdogs. I do expect him to be the highest owned underdog though so I will be underweight. Oliveira can finish this fight anywhere but if he gets one takedown then that could be all it takes.
Underdog play of the week – Melissa Gatto $7,500
Gatto is my preferred play in all formats from this fight. I am picking her to win, and I think she can finish by submission or TKO and score well. I don’t think she would score too well if she won a decision but if you are on the Cortez side, then she can because of her wrestling. Gatto will be one of my favorite underdog targets though and we do have some value on her because she has gone from +150 to +120 on the betting line since these salaries were released. She could get her 3rd TKO finish in 3 UFC fights here, but I will take her to get a submission in this one.
Fade of the week – Francisco Trinaldo – $8,200
We are going to need a finish from either side for them to make the optimal and FGTD is lined at -150. Trinaldo hasn’t landed over 40 significant strikes in his last 4 fights and the last time he finished a fight before round 3 was back in 2018. Even if he finishes the fight late, he probably doesn’t make the optimal lineup. He is a full fade for me this week and I am going to X him out of my player pool.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that at the link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 203-184 for +244.06u (+$24,406) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)