Big Marley’s UFC 266 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

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If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)

Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups

Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)

Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:


Strikes +0.2 Pts
Significant Strikes +0.2 Pts
Control Time +0.03 Pts/Second
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts


Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
Quick Win Bonus +25 Pts

This weekend, we have a 13-fight PPV card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $25 buy-in & $150k goes to 1st place with $700,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.

With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Valentina Shevchenko – $9,500

I think we take the “free” win here with Shevchenko at -2000. She is the easiest and safest win on the card, and she has a path to a high score if she looks to grapple. She can rack up takedowns, control time, and ground strikes and outscore everyone on this card. She could also look to just win the striking game and I don’t see her ending up on the GPP optimal if she does that and doesn’t get a knockout. We can get away from her in GPPs for that reason, but I think she is a lock in cash games, and she should cruise to a victory here.

GPP play of the week – Chris Daukaus – $8,800

Daukaus has scored 104, 141, and 127 in his 3 UFC wins and at least two of those will put him on the optimal this weekend if he can do it again. I want to go overweight on Daukaus but he is going to need another finish to get there, especially with some of the other high ceiling fighters on this card. He is a top 5 play for me but the other plays I like will be higher owned and that is why I like Daukaus a lot for GPPs. He is the younger and faster striker and I think he can get another KO in this matchup. I’d go elsewhere in cash games but Daukaus is a guy I would look to get some GPP leverage on this weekend.

Underdog play of the week – Jalin Turner – $7,800

This is one of my favorite fights to load up on both sides of. I think we get a finish in this fight, and I don’t know that we even see the 3rd round. Either guy would score well in that situation, and they are priced near the mid-range as well. I feel like I will be overweight to both sides of this fight in GPPs, but my preferred play is Turner. He is a dog I am picking to win, and he has one of the higher underdog ceilings as well. I think he can finish on the feet, or the ground and I would slightly favor him in this matchup. He does have a low floor though so I would probably look elsewhere in cash games, but I think Turner will be my highest owned underdog on this card for GPPs.

Fade of the week – Omar Morales – $8,500

Omar is my fade of the week because I don’t think he even scores 10x unless he gets a KO. Lauzon did put Pearce away so maybe Omar does the same and ruins my night, but he is the easiest favorite for me to fade on this card. His DK scores in his 3 UFC wins are 71, 55, and 74. None of those are going to cut it at his price tag and I am going to X him out of my player pool.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 176-165 for +220.61u (+$22,061) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.


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UFC 266 Fight Breakdown: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Lauren Murphy