If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
We have new rules for MMA DFS in 2021 so keep that in mind and think of how the new format will gain you an edge. Here are the new rules:
|Significant Strikes||+0.2 Pts|
|Control Time||+0.03 Pts/Second|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
|Quick Win Bonus||+25 Pts|
This weekend, we have a 14-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400,000 in total being paid out. I will probably throw some lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I also might throw 150 lineups in the mini max to work on my MME game.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Rong Zhu – $7,600
Rong Zhu is the easy cash game option because we are getting him at an underdog salary, but he is a -350 on the betting line. We have to lock that value into cash games even if you think he loses. If you want to get different then just do that in GPPs because he will be the chalk of the card. We just don’t get this type of value on every card, and we have to take advantage of it in cash games when we do. I think he is the better fighter everywhere in this fight, but I am not sure how high his ceiling will be. In cash, we don’t care as much about the ceiling, especially at $7.6k.
GPP play of the week – Ion Cutelaba – $9,000
Cutelaba is a boom/bust play because he starts out hot and slows down as the fight goes on. His best chance at winning the fight comes early and that is when we get the large win bonuses. He does have power on the feet and Clark has a questionable chin so I think he has 100+ upside and his ownership might be lower than it should. I like the $9k range a good bit this week but we can save some money here and go to Cutelaba and still have the same upside at lower ownership. I like him a lot this week and I do think he gets a KO.
Underdog play of the week – Carleston Harris – $7,300
Harris was a bigger dog earlier in the week and that is why he is only $7.3k with a PK betting line. He could even be the betting favorite by the top this fight kicks off. He is a grappling heavy style fighter, and he has power on the feet. I think he gets a finish if he does win this fight and I don’t see how he would score less than 10x if he gets his hand raised. He has 100+ upside as well with the early finish potential. I am not confident he does get the win, but I am confident he scores over 10x if he does, and he will be lower owned and cheaper than the Zhu chalk.
Fade of the week – Raquel Pennington – $8,700
Rocky is an easy fade for me this week. She just isn’t active enough to pay off this salary without a finish and I don’t see her landing more than 1-2 takedowns in this fight. Even if she does get the win here, I would expect her to score around ~70 DK points and at this salary that just won’t cut it. I will be X’ing her out of my player pool this week and I am picking Kianzad to get a split decision win based on striking volume.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 175-163 for +222.97u (+$22,297) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)